A crypto market analyst explained what he describes as a simple mathematical technique used to determine the bottom Previous Bitcoin Bear Market. Focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price action, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the 2022 bottom is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macro phase.
Simple math that determined the price of Bitcoin at the bottom of a bear market
In an X post on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revised his prediction in December 2022 about Bitcoin bear market is down. While he acknowledged that the call time has been reduced by several months, he maintained that the price target itself is correct.
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Analysis cited Bitcoin bear market bottom around $15,000 by the end of 2022, which the analyst had previously projected using this framework. His approach is based on macro Fibonacci expansion levels plotted on a quarterly chart, focusing on the 1.618 Fibonacci level, which is located near $62,084.
The accompanying chart shows how Bitcoin has historically reacted to this macro level. During the bull run of 2021, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and hold price actionhas risen above the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The analyst pointed to the candles of the second and fourth quarters of 2021, both of which declined in the same area.
These repeated rejections It showed strong resistance at the time, reinforcing the importance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels between periods, the analyst argues that long-term Fibonacci math can be identify both extremes and potential expansion targets.
A quarterly Fibonacci retracement suggests the next macro phase
The latest interpretation of the analyst’s chart shows that Bitcoin’s relationship with 1.618 Fibonacci levels have moved from resistance to support. After breaking above the $62,084 area during the quarter, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle below the level since the break.
The chart shows two notable tests after the move. In the second and third quarters thereafter, Bitcoin tested the level briefly, but managed to break above it at the end. A three-month high even broke below $50,000 before retracing the $62,084 level. By the current quarter, which ends in March, Bitcoin is still trading higher the same macrofibonacci level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a test of the quarterly high.
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The outlook on the chart extends to the next Fibonacci retracement level at 2.618, which is near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as a minimum macro target if the structure holds. The chart also shows potential volatility and suggests that prices may extend to the $500,000 area. in the expansion phase.
However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly fits remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market. Even with this caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a continuation model at the center of Bitcoin, which is the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
