EU leaders will converge in Brussels on Thursday, hoping to unlock a massive loan to Kyiv along with much-needed funding, embroiled in a standoff between Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.
Moscow’s closest partner in the bloc, the nationalist Hungarian leader has long opposed helping Kyiv repel Russian aggression, halting EU aid and repeated rounds of sanctions.
At the moment, Orban is saddled with a 90-billion-euro ($104 billion) debt for hostile takeovers that have damaged a pipeline that runs through Ukraine — choking off the flow of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
The Hungarian prime minister is leaning toward anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian narratives ahead of closely-fought national elections on April 12 — he seems intent on playing hardball.
“No oil, no money,” he warned this week. “If President Zelensky wants to get his money from Brussels, then the Druzhba pipeline should be reopened.”
The weeks-long spat has left landlocked Hungary and Slovakia both accusing Ukraine of stalling on pipeline repairs – but Zelensky has called it “blackmail” to link the issue to support for his war effort.
The European Commission moved this week to defuse the situation by sending a team to help restore oil shipments, but Budapest dismissed the initiative as “theater” and refused to budge.
Cue a looming showdown in Brussels — and a tricky balancing act for Orbán’s EU counterparts.
‘No Plan B’
It’s a well-worn routine in Brussels, where Orban has made countless decisions on Ukraine and eventually found solutions — in one famous case when he left the room to approve the bloc’s opening of membership talks with Kyiv.
But frustration that Orban should reject the loan, which he personally greenlit at a previous summit in December, is palpable.
“Everyone wants this to be resolved,” an EU diplomat summed up, adding that fellow capitals were “more or less fed up” with the Hungarian leader’s behavior.
A German government official described a “certain momentum” on the pipeline issue – seeing an opportunity for progress when leaders meet on Thursday.
But the message from other capitals was less hopeful.
“Will we make progress? I have strong doubts,” said an EU diplomat, predicting that Orban was “not going to budge” on his stance of playing nice with his voter base at home.
Complicating matters, leaders are wary of giving Orban, who overtook main rival Peter Magyar in the polls, a chance to bolster his image as a maverick on the EU stage by publicly siding with him.
Failure to break this week’s impasse will push the issue back, whatever the outcome, after the Hungarian vote.
Can Ukraine hold back after Hungary’s election? Ambiguous, say EU insiders.
Facing a four-year budget deficit at war, Kyiv is estimated to need an infusion of funds as early as May — hinting at a decision to unlock EU debt by mid-April.
As Orbán dug in, there was talk of alternative solutions to keep Ukraine afloat – but a second EU diplomat poured cold water on the idea.
“There are no bridge solutions or Plan B. There is only one plan, and that is Plan A,” he said. “Orbán must fulfill his promise.”
(With FRANCE 24 AFP)
(tags to translate)Europe
