Constanze Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution analyzes the difficult European leaders are having as they calculate their responses to US and Israeli war with Iran.
Adrian MA, Host:
European leaders are walking a tough line as they figure out their responses to a US and Israeli war with Iran. For example, earlier today, Switzerland’s defense minister, Martin Pfister, called the war a violation of international law. Meanwhile, other officials have taken a different action. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met with President Trump at the White House last week.
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Friedrich Merz: We are on the same page in terms of getting this terrible regime in Tehran.
MA: Then there is UK Prime Minister Keir Stormer, who initially insisted that his country would not join the US and Israel in their strikes. But his position is evolving.
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Prime Minister Keir Stormer: When Iran started attacking countries around the Gulf and the wider region, the situation changed. Iran has now fired drones and missiles at 10 countries that did not attack them.
MA: To help us understand these reactions and the politics at work here, we are now joined by Constanze Stelzenmüller. He is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, specializing in transatlantic relations, international law and security policy. Thanks for joining all things considered.
Constance Stelzenmüller: My pleasure.
MA: So let’s start with the big picture here – what stood out to you about Europe’s response to the war?
STELGENMULLER: Well, the first thing I want to make clear is to say, and there is no lack of clarity about this, that no one in Europe, be it leaders or the public, is enamored of Khamenei and the regime of the Revolutionary Guards. I think everyone will be happy to see them kicked out. And there is immense sympathy for the pain of Iranian civil society in the last decade and especially in recent years. But it’s clear how conflicted European leaders are because they care deeply about A, US and Israeli goals, and wonder about the implications for their own security situation in Europe.
MA: So they have to shatter a lot of political panels here.
Stelzenmueller: Exactly.
MA: So let’s go back to Chancellor Merz of Germany. When he met Trump in the Oval Office, he said Germany and the US were “on the same page”. What do you make of it?
Stelzenmueller: When he was in the Oval Office, I think Chancellor Merz, more than anything, was trying to avoid a Zelensky-type situation and maybe even get kicked out. He said earlier that he thought international law, you know, didn’t provide any good answers to the situation. He has since scaled back his support somewhat. In general, it must be said that the Europeans are divided into several camps, and some are aligned with the United States. There are certainly some who are Atlanticists by inclination, such as the Germans, the British and the French. And then those you mention stick to criticism based on international law.
MA: And then what about UK Prime Minister Stormer? I mean, he seems to have changed his mind about supporting this war and mocked President Trump on social media, citing, “We don’t need people joining wars after we’ve already won them.” So can you analyze what is going on here?
Stelzenmüller: Adrian, I don’t think it’s worth fighting with the Americans about the use of those bases – the European countries that have American bases in their territories, except for the Spanish. This is true for the Germans. This is true for Italians. This is true for the British.
MA: The bases that the Americans are using for some of these operations.
Stelzenmueller: Exactly. I do not mean that as support for strikes or their consequences. Europeans are mostly concerned about two things. Will it bring regime change and alleviate the suffering of Iran’s civil society? Or will it bring chaos to the region and insecurity to Europe? And quite frankly, at this point, it looks more like the latter.
MA: Turning to another European leader, French President Emmanuel Macron, who said France is not joining the war, he is sending his country’s only aircraft carrier to the region. So square this circle for us.
Stelzenmueller: I would probably put it in a larger context. Several countries, including Greece, the United Kingdom, and France, have sent military assets, including naval and air assets, to the eastern Mediterranean. They are doing it to protect the security of Europe. It is noteworthy that the island of Cyprus, which is a member of the European Union, has been hit by an Iranian drone attack. So the concern of European leaders right now is the protection of European bases and European publics and European territory.
MA: And my understanding is that part of it is protecting the flow of energy, which is dependent on coming from the European region.
Stelzenmueller: Yes, absolutely. The Eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot for shipping, pipelines and cables. There is a very real concern – that Iran has already attacked about a dozen additional countries in an attempt to export war, putting European citizens at risk. This creates a flow of refugees. This may in due course increase the risk of terrorism in Europe. And it’s already driving up oil and gas prices and transportation costs, including insurance costs. So yes, we are putting assets in an effort to create some stability in an area that is clearly heating up in a way that is very difficult to control.
MA: I mean, even before the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran, Europe’s relationship to the U.S. was already changing, and it was clear that it had a lot to do with the war in Ukraine, which has sparked a lot of tough discussions about how to deal with the implications for energy, natural gas, and oil. Can you talk about how the war in Ukraine has changed how these European countries see their security role in Europe compared to the Middle East?
STELGENMUELLER: Well, let’s start with the unquoted leader statement, which is Ukrainian President Zelensky offering support for Ukrainian anti-drone capabilities to European and American actors in the region. That’s really remarkable. And the truth is that Ukraine has very significant experience to bring here. Russia’s full-scale invasion completely changed the way Europeans thought about their regional security and their alliances. For Europeans it really is everywhere, everything at once. He has seen relations with Russia turn completely hostile. Relations with China are increasingly fraught as the Chinese openly support the Russians. Let’s just say the relationship with the Trump administration is complicated. And now the events in the Middle East – to European observers – seem as if they are already spiraling out of control and may already cause conflicts on the periphery of Europe. So really, it’s everywhere, everything at once.
MA: We are talking to Constanze Stelzenmuller. He is director of the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Thanks for joining us.
Stelzenmueller: Thank you, Adrian. Well, it’s nice.
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