Who says the world is unpredictable these days?
Two things happened now that we could have seen a mile away.
Events in the Middle East have followed the exact script of “what happens if you attack Iran,” scenario analysts have been predicting for decades.
If you take the ayatollahs and threaten their future, they will take off the gloves and Attack everyone. Check out.
They effectively make it impossible to send shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by sinking tankers and raising the cost of insurance to unbearable levels. Check out.
The Oil prices will skyrocket. Gulf allies warn of apocalyptic collapse in energy supplies. Economists imagine the sky falling over our heads and a A global economic disaster. Check, check, check.
And the pain for American presidents facing midterm elections, if they allow them to happen, will be enormous. Check out.
Experts have been sitting in TV studios for years issuing maps and warnings about closing the world’s jugular.
A second predictable result is our time constant. Trump always chickens out.
The banner depicts Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei with his predecessors. Image: Reuters
Robert Armstrong, the man who coined the term TACO chairman, wrote in the Financial Times today: “It is entirely unclear whether the chairman’s comments had anything to do with a change in the balance of the war on the ground.
“He clearly communicated, to the markets’ delight, that Trump is looking for an exit.”
This is what the Iranian leadership needs to hear.
Trump wants out.
Whether it’s this week or next or a little longer, the Iranian government needs to hang in there.
America and Israel wanted regime change. If that is not changed, they will fail and Iran’s leadership will rightly or wrongly declare victory.
They may have lost every fighter and naval ship in their inventory. But he remains in power, despite a longing for change among many of his people, with promises of help from the US president ‘on the way’.
Read more:
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Fuel prices ease amid hopes that Trump will soon end the war
As for Iran’s nuclear program, Trump declares that it has been dismantled. Again.
But as long as Iran has the scientists to rebuild and a leadership committed to doing so, it can rise from the ashes like a Persian phoenix.
What will future adversaries learn from all this?
In Beijing, they are closely watching Xi Jinping’s presidency as they plan to annex Taiwan.
They now have a better gauge of Donald Trump’s tolerance for economic pain, a crucial factor as he plays off his neighbor’s aggression.
The president, who is always feared as unpredictable and mercurial, has fallen somewhat short after what he called his latest ‘brief jaunt’ in the Middle East.
