From above, one of the world’s richest diamond mines looks like a giant gray footprint smudged into the bushland of southern Botswana.
Up close, it’s a gaping hole, 1.5 miles long and almost five football fields deep, and it has helped transform this rural nation from one of the poorest countries in Africa at independence 60 years ago to one of the richest today.
The country is now the world’s second-largest diamond producer and is also praised globally for opposing the infamous “resource curse,” in which countries with abundant natural resources tend to face greater economic instability. Instead, Botswana has used its wealth to lift its population out of poverty.
Why do we write this?
Botswana is world famous for opposing the “resource curse” and using its diamond wealth to reduce poverty. Now, as lab-grown diamonds shake up the country’s economy, it’s becoming another kind of parable: about the dangers of relying too much on a single natural resource.
But one of Africa’s great success stories is increasingly becoming a warning about the dangers of over-reliance on a single natural resource. After half a century of almost uninterrupted economic growth in Botswana, US tariffs, the rapid rise of synthetic diamonds and other transformations in the global diamond market now threaten the country’s brilliant rise.
Disruptions in the diamond industry.
Botswana diamonds were forged billions of years ago by the heat and pressure of the Earth’s mantle and then expelled to the surface by volcanic eruptions. And even here, in one of the most diamond-rich corners of the Earth, they are exceptionally rare.
To put it in perspective, the two-story-high dump trucks climbing the flanks of the Jwaneng mine each carry around 250 tons of chewed-up black rock. Inside is perhaps a carat (about 200 milligrams or 0.007 ounces) of gem-quality diamonds.
On the other hand, lab-grown diamonds take only a few weeks to manufacture and the potential supply is almost unlimited. They also cost about 10% of the price of natural diamonds.
Today, synthetic diamonds – most of which come from China and India – account for about a fifth of the global diamond market, up from 1% a decade ago. Industry analysts predict the synthetic market will grow another 300% by 2034. Meanwhile, US tariffs – including those on countries like India, where 90% of the world’s diamonds are polished – have disrupted global diamond production, exacerbating the industry’s decline.
This spells bad news for countries like Botswana, whose economy is, in many ways, a one-stop shop. Diamonds account for 80% of the country’s exports and contribute a quarter of its gross domestic product.
That money comes mainly from Debswana, whose ownership is split 50-50 between the Botswana government and South African mining giant De Beers. Between 2023 and 2025, Debswana production in Botswana fell by 39%. Experts predict Botswana’s diamond revenue in the fiscal year ending in September will be less than half the historical average.
The cuts at Debswana, one of Botswana’s largest private employers, extend beyond the diamond industry. The company also runs schools, major hospitals and even playgrounds in the country. Dimpho Selebe worked for 17 years as a teacher at a mine-run school in the town of Letlhakane, where he says his salary was twice what teachers in the public school system earn. “I was there when Debswana was flourishing,” he recalls. He also prospered: he sent his children to good schools and bought a farm.
But when the mine reduced production, Selene saw the writing on the wall. Last year, when the company offered him a voluntary purchase, he decided to accept it. He is now retraining to become a tour guide. “I don’t want to be inactive,” he says.
Over the past two years, Debswana has offered similar takeovers at all of its mines, hoping to shed around 10% of its workforce.
Meanwhile, its losses – along with those faced by smaller private companies – are already having major consequences for Botswana’s bottom line. The country’s economy contracted 3% in 2024 and that recession continued in 2025.
A country of small stones
The effects of declining diamond sales are now clearly visible in towns like Jwaneng, which sprang up next to the mine here in the early 1980s.
The economy of Jwaneng, whose name means “place of small stones” in Tswana, revolves around the mine. In addition to the mine workers themselves, many here make a living selling fruit, cell phone credit or plates of chicken and salad outside their doors, or driving the noisy minibus taxis that transport employees to and from work.
But Jwaneng has taken a number of hits recently. In addition to losing employees due to Debswana’s voluntary purchases, sections of the mine closed for part of 2025 to reduce costs as demand for diamonds declined.
In June, Dikeledi Monnamotho accepted a voluntary termination from his job as an electrical technician at the mine. She now works as a food vendor, a profession that is also closely linked to the fortunes of the diamond industry, and says she earns half her previous income. But with few other options, he has bet his future on a change of direction in mining.
“I’m hoping the diamonds will sell again,” he says simply.
Political analyst and businessman Martin De Klerk Moatshe says that whatever happens to the diamond market, Botswana needs to hedge its bets and develop an “economy based on skills and values”. That would mean investing more in the country’s world-famous national parks, as well as manufacturing and agriculture.
Othusitse Malome hopes to find a future beyond mining. He worked at the Jwaneng mine until his contract was terminated last year, a job he said was part of his identity. Mining allowed him to build a new home for his family in his village, send his children to private school, and support a constellation of siblings and other relatives.
“Working in a mine made me appreciate how diamonds changed the lives of our people,” Malome says.
Now he can no longer send money home and will soon move to the capital, Gaborone, about 85 miles east of Jwaneng. There he plans to register the car he bought with his miner’s salary as a taxi and try to start over.
