For much of the past decade, the art market has behaved as if history had stopped. Collectors and speculators chase wet paint with missionary zeal, believing that the next visit to the studio might yield a future masterpiece (or net a handsome return when flipped on the secondary market). Auction houses have had to turn evening sales into extravaganzas for artists who have had little time to develop a reputation.
According to the latest news, the frenzy seems to be over Art Basel and UBS Art Market Reportwritten by economist Claire McAndrew of Arts Economics. While the global art market returned to modest growth last year, with sales reaching an estimated $59.6 billion (up 4% after two years of decline), auction sales of postwar and contemporary art continued to decline. These categories generated $4.5 billion in revenue last year, compared with $8.5 billion in 2021.
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Despite four consecutive years of decline, postwar and contemporary art remains the largest segment of the auction market, underscoring its importance to the auction market over the past two decades.
For a decade, contemporary art seemed to eclipse everything else. Now, collectors seem to be rediscovering the appeal of artists who have long since achieved fame. Auction prices for Impressionist and Post-Impressionist works rose 47% last year, while those for Old Masters rose 30%, reversing several years of decline.
During the epidemic, recently created works flooded the auction market. By value, works created within the past 20 years accounted for 34% of post-war and contemporary auction sales in 2021, a significant increase from previous years. By 2025, this proportion has dropped to 19%. The number of works created in the past two decades that sold for more than $10 million fell from 21 in 2021 to just three in 2025.
The report distinguishes between “postwar and contemporary” art (broadly referring to artists working after 1945) and the more speculative ultra-contemporary art segment (consisting mainly of works created in the past two decades). In recent years, the work of young painters such as Avery Singer, Lucy Bull and Jadé Fadojutimi has become emblematic of this rapidly developing field.
This pace is unlikely to continue. The market will ultimately ask the same question they always ask: Which artists will still be relevant twenty years from now?
In times of economic uncertainty, this question often prompts buyers to seek safety. Monet, Degas or a 17th-century Dutch painter may not offer the excitement of discovering the next sensation, but their reputations are unlikely to disappear with the next shift in fashion.
None of this means that contemporary art is disappearing from the market. Auction houses still relied heavily on postwar names to anchor their sales, and galleries continued to bring in new artists every quarter. But the mood has changed.
The art market still rewards novelty. It’s just a rediscovery of the virtues of age.
