Chinese visits down 60% in January 2026

After living in Tokyo A year in, Karin Nordin noticed something strange. The hot spring towns of Kusatsu and Zhao – usually crowded with Chinese tourists.

“We saw fewer mainland Chinese tourists in Tokyo,” the 33-year-old Malaysian told CNBC after returning from Japan in early 2026.

Hotel prices in tourist areas appear to have stabilized and, unlike previous years, no longer rise during holidays in mainland China.

Nordin’s experience is representative of Japan’s broader tourism landscape, which began last November amid a diplomatic spat over comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sane Takaichi that have kept Chinese tourists away from Asia’s third-largest economy.

Data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) revealed that arrivals from mainland China fell more than 60% year-on-year in January, while overall tourist arrivals fell 4.9% year-on-year.

In December, the number of Chinese tourists fell by 43.3%, while the overall number of tourist arrivals from all countries rose by 3.7%.

Before November, tourists from mainland China were one of the largest groups heading to Japan.

Where are these other tourists coming from? JNTO numbers indicate that more tourists are coming from South Korea and Taiwan – in January alone, South Korean tourist arrivals rose by 21.6%, surpassing China as the largest source of overseas visitors.

There were almost twice as many visitors from China as from Taiwan in January, with arrivals from Taiwan up 17%.

Japan’s appeal to people visiting from nearby countries lies in its strong short-haul flight connections, weak yen and its reputation as an intimate, culturally familiar and safe destination, said James Cook University (JCU) senior lecturer in hospitality and tourism management Jilmia Kamble.

Asked about the decline in tourists from mainland China, Kamble told CNBC in an email that the decline was “significant but not catastrophic.”

While Chinese tourists represent one of Japan’s most valuable inbound markets, spending heavily on retail, hospitality and luxury goods, Japan has historically had a diverse tourism portfolio, which provides a degree of resilience, Kamble said.

But unlike Chinese tourists, who are generally perceived to visit tourist hotspots like Kyoto, Osaka and Tokyo, an influx of tourists from other countries is bringing travelers to other regions of Japan.

Prefectures such as Shizuoka – home to the iconic Mount Fuji and Nara – known for its temples and deer park, have been hit hardest by a lack of Chinese tourists, according to analysts at Oxford Economics in a Feb. 27 report.

However, according to Oxford Economics, places like Fukushima are popular among Taiwanese, while golf courses and hot springs in Ehime Prefecture attract South Korean tourists.

University of Singapore student Cheryl Ng, who visited Hiroshima in February, told CNBC that the city has a large number of Western tourists. “Two-thirds of the museum is Western,” he said, referring to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum.

Oxford Economics echoed that view, saying Americans, Australians and Europeans are drawn to Hiroshima’s historic sites.

Hiroshima was hit by the first atomic bomb on August 6, 1945, as US forces closed in on Imperial Japan in the waning days of World War II.

Oxford Economics said “Given the continued yen weakness, we think overall tourist numbers are likely to remain robust, although an increase from current levels is unlikely due to a lack of accommodation.”

David Mann, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at MasterCard, agreed: “The broader picture is still positive,” he told CNBC in an email.

Mann noted that overall inbound arrivals to Japan are running about 34% above pre-pandemic levels, with tourism revenue growing faster than visitor numbers thanks to higher per-visitor spending driven by a weaker yen.

So the question is whether Chinese tourists will return to Japan.

Oxford Economics analysts said Chinese tourist numbers were “unlikely to recover anytime soon”, adding that Japanese businesses were looking to draw demand from elsewhere.

Analysts said department stores are expanding their promotional activities in ASEAN economies and retailers are increasing their stocking of products popular with Europeans, Americans and Southeast Asians rather than targeting Chinese tourists.

It’s hard to put an exact timeline on the return of Chinese tourists, but any recovery is likely to be gradual, MasterCard’s Mann said.

His sentiment was echoed by JCU’s Kamble, who noted that travel decisions are shaped not only by politics, but also by consumer confidence, social media narratives and broader economic conditions.

Other factors such as airline connectivity, disposable income and diplomatic stability also play a role, he said.

“Re-establishing trust takes time, especially in an increasingly connected digital information environment,” he said.