Stars are hard to come by and none of these guys are even 30 yet. So, with good regular season goaltending, we know what we can get from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, and at least have some key pillars of a successful team in place.
If they blow it (which means trading Matthews and Nylander), the Leafs will spend years bottoming out and drafting high, hoping to bring one of those quality players back sooner rather than later. It could be a journey that spans years, so before you do that, you need to at least see if you can’t build it around the people you have now and align everything that way. All other options must be exhausted before proceeding with a full rebuild.
So it’s a reorganization, right?
Let’s talk about how realistic it is for the Leafs to return to the playoffs next season and how that will impact what they do at the deadline.
The salary cap for this season is set at $95.5 million, and the Leafs are currently almost exactly $10 million below that limit. Only one player is scheduled to receive a raise next season: Stolarz, who will get a raise from $2.5 million to $3.75 million. Chris Tanev comes off IR, but not all of his cap hit is on LTIR, so he only adds $3.8 million to the cap.
That puts them way below the cap, but what about the salary cap? That’s worth about $140 million. If the Leafs move on from Morgan Rielly (which seems quite possible), that’s an additional $7.5 million they would have to take with them.
If they get serious about turning things around and competing next season, they could find themselves with cap space stacked up (after a few years of the complete opposite) but not enough good players to give it to them (after a few years of the complete opposite).
That said, the idea of trading Oliver Ekman-Larsson might not make the most sense. I recently argued that the Leafs should be “oversold,” and I did so because I was at least a little skeptical that this “reorganization” could succeed. As I explained in that article, you’re probably better off just getting a pile of assets and hoping a few things break your way. You can sign a decent UFA without the assets (overpaying for Darren Raddysh, for example), or you have some great players who want a change of scenery (Adam Fox?) and now you have the assets to acquire those guys.
But that’s just the way I’ve been thinking big pictureAnd that doesn’t exactly respect the quick fix idea they clearly want. If the Leafs are serious about competing next season, it’s hard to imagine they could find a better D-man than OEL. And his two extra years in office make him flip-flopping next year anyway. It’s hard to imagine anyone on the UFA market doing better than Scott Laughton or Bobby McMann, and they’re not trying to do worse, so I could see a world where management sees fit to extend one or both of them.
Whatever many people’s long-term predictions for this team, a reorganization involves needing good players and complementing them around them, not removing them from the roster.
What any serious attempt to win next year means is that they part ways with Calle Jarnkrok for the song, see Matias Maccelli as a borderline giveaway, and see if they can’t grab a few other choices for peripheral parts that are considered completely interchangeable (maybe Simon Benoit, for example).
What you’re selling there is that everything that could go wrong has gone wrong and will be different next year.
Let’s hope we don’t have another strange start with goaltending this season. You’re hoping Nylander stays healthy for 82 games as usual and the long summer brings back 50-goal threat Auston Matthews. You’re hoping that the initial skepticism about Knies motivates him this summer, that Brandon Carlo’s ankle is better, and that he has a bounce-back season.
Here’s hoping Tanev’s return will completely change the face of D Corps.
Another question is what another coach can do for the group. I think it’s fair to say they haven’t maximized their roster this season, and if they want to make a big difference with a little bit of change, it’s definitely one of the buttons they could press.
I believe a lot of this can happen and be helpful. But the question is how fine the margin of error is. And you know there are always unexpected errors. I can’t see Tanev playing 82, or even 72, games next season. Right? In his history and his age?
You could basically pick up all of the notes above and express similar skepticism.
The next part is looking at the divisions around the Leafs and evaluating the state of that team.
Ottawa: Elite base numbers have been undone by goaltending, and even with average goaltending, there’s a good chance they’ll be better next year.
montreal: They have a huge shooting percentage this year, but they are so talented that they will be a home ice playoff team for at least the next few years.
Detroit: Playoff teams are getting better, so we’ll be adding them at the deadline.
cavalry: It finally arrived and I purchased it on time.
Florida: They’re reloading for a third cup competition next year, who’s going to bet on them?
Tampa Bay: Cumulative division champions who bring roughly everyone back next year.
Boston: Probably the only team in a similar position to the Leafs. Except they have five first-round picks to play with over the next three years.
If everything goes right for the Leafs next season, they’ll still need help. So, because I’m looking at the big picture, I can see how they’re taking the opposite stance while I’m advocating for the sale.
As we head towards this deadline, teams with management groups are expecting a ton of bounce-backs with little change. It will take the next few days for that speculation to be proven wrong, but with the fan base hungry for action, clear direction, and a pulse, a strong, dull Leafs-based trade season appears to be shaping up.
The team wants to try again next year, and looking at the pillars they have, you can see why. I may be skeptical, and you may be skeptical too. them You might be skeptical, but I think the Leafs should at least give it a try. And with that in mind, making an effort may not seem like a lot of work.
