According to data shared by André Dragos, head of research at Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin (BTC) rewards investors the most who hold it for at least three years.
Basic considerations:
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Holding BTC for at least three years has historically reduced losses by just 0.70%.
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Bitcoin price predictions for the cluster of 2026-2027 in high-end scenarios around $100,000-$150,000.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have very little to lose
Bitwise’s analysis looked at Bitcoin price history from July 17, 2010 to February 11, 2026, and concluded that the probability of being in the red drops to 0.70% if you hold BTC for at least three years.
In other words, almost all three-year entry points in Bitcoin history have been profitable. After three years, the risk of loss has further decreased: 0.2% for five years and 0% for ten years.
Traders who held Bitcoin for less than three years faced a greater risk of loss.
For example, one-day buyers had a 47.1% chance of being flooded. This probability increased by 44.7% for one week, 43.2% for one month and 24.3% for one year of holding.
Strong hands already have 90% profit
The realized price metric also shows a decline in holder losses over multi-year windows.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October 2025 high to around $65,000.
That was well above the $34,780 price during its three-to-five-year period, meaning investors who bought and held through that window are still sitting on roughly 90% of the gains.
Meanwhile, some traders believe that the current Bitcoin price correction could be as high as $30,000.
Moving to this level removes much of the cohort’s cushion, bringing the cohort three to five years closer to breaking even. It will be tested again whether these holders add to the selling pressure or sit tight.
In contrast, most traders who bought Bitcoin in the last two years were under water.
The core value of the cohort of 6-12 million, companies holding BTC for up to a year, was around $101,250, leaving them with around 35% unrealized losses as of Saturday.
However, the cost of the 1-2y cohort was lower, at approximately $78,150, representing approximately 15% of the unrealized loss.
The difference reinforced the same pattern seen in the retention period data: the longer the retention window, the smaller the reduction in adjustment time.
How High Can BTC Price Go?
Long-term forecasts are still clustering around a range of top targets for 2026-2027.
For example, global brokerage Bernstein maintained its $150,000 BTC call for 2026 and pointed to a relatively modest net outflow of around 7% from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, even if the BTC price fell by 50%.
“Bitcoin’s current price action is simply a crisis of confidence,” said Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has warned of a possible “final surrender” phase that could see BTC recover to $100,000 by the end of 2026 amid weaker ETFs and a tighter macro backdrop.
Looking ahead to 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historical “mean reversion” time frame points to $122,000 by early 2027, with a high probability that BTC will trade above that number.
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