According to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, the price of Bitcoin is near its bottom, which marks the bottom of a four-year cycle.
Speaking to CNBC on Monday, van Eck said that his company expects Bitcoin (BTC) to begin a gradual rise this year, stating that the four-year semi-annual period was the main price driver compared to anything related to BTC’s fundamentals.
“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin will be managed with a limited supply of 21 million, and a halving period where the Bitcoin miners who run the network will receive half the amount of Bitcoin every four years,” he said, adding:
“There’s an investment cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row and then goes down significantly for the fourth year. 2026 is the fourth year. So we’re in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we’re going to bottom.”
The quadrennial crypto cycle has been a hot topic of debate since last year, and crypto analysts have divided whether the chart pattern is still relevant today given the level of institutional adoption and the maturity of the crypto market.
Arguments against the cycle include macro demand for exchange-traded funds, a weakening US dollar and positive regulatory developments.
According to CoinGecko, Jan van Eck’s comments come as BTC is up 2.6% over the past 24 hours to $68,400 at the time of writing and is trading 7.6% over the past seven days.
related to: Bitcoin’s slide is slowing, but the market is still in the game: Analysts
The crypto pump has been fueled by rising geopolitical tensions, following the launch of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which has since prompted Iran to retaliate against Israel.
Van Eck speculated that Bitcoin’s recent recovery may be due in part to the conflict, with crypto payment rails serving as a key vehicle for moving funds outside of banks in times of economic uncertainty.
“When somebody thinks about some kind of solution with Iran, how do you move the money? And I think it’s a very, very friendly area for crypto, the UAE, Dubai and everything,” he said, adding:
“So it’s possible that if we wanted to transfer money to good players, we’d want to use cryptographic payment rails, as opposed to going through run-of-the-mill Iranian banks that we don’t control.”
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