Nagaraj Shetty
Senior Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
Where is the Nifty headed?
A long bear candle has formed on the Nifty daily chart, indicating a sharp break of the descending triangle type pattern. The critical February 3 opening gap is almost filled at around 25,100 (with a slight margin remaining). This is not a good sign. As per the daily and weekly charts, the Nifty remains bearish, and a move towards the 25,400 level could be an opportunity for increased selling. The next lows to watch are around 24,700, and then 24,300 in the near term. Business strategies: One may sell Nifty March futures around 25,335–25,400 levels or buy March 30 Nifty 25,300 PE to close around Rs 332-300 for a possible downside in the index in the near term. Downside targets for the Nifty spot are around 24,700, and then 24,300 for the end of March. Shorts should be placed around 25,400 in the Nifty area with a tight stop loss.
Institutions
Top picks for the week
Indian Oil: Buy Rs 485 on CMP, Stop Loss: Rs 470, Target Rs 510
The stock price has moved above the support of the 10- and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Volume has expanded during an upward breakout in the stock price, and the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a positive sign.
Mutual Finance: Sell at CMP Rs 3,347, Stop Loss: Rs 3,450, Target: Rs 3,175
Crucial support in the upside gap area of the November 14 opening was found at the Rs 3,400 level on Friday and closed lower. It is currently showing a downside breakout from range-bound action.
Mehul Kowatari
DVP – Technical Research, Anand Rathi Partner & Stockbrokers
Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty remains in correction and consolidation phase after repeated rejection from 25,800-26,000 resistance zone, and is currently trading near 25,100 key support area. As long as 25,100 is held, the broader structure remains constructive, and the index may try to stabilize. A decisive move above 25,800 would confirm a triangle breakout, and open the way for new highs, while a break below 25,100 would undermine the formation and call for a re-evaluation of the upside view.
Business strategies: A sustained move above 25,800 may favor Bull Call Spreads, while a break below 25,100 could open opportunities for Bear Put Spreads. Until a clear breakout or breakout emerges, range-based strategies such as bull put spreads or iron condors can be considered within the 25,100-25,800 band. ETF investors should take advantage of the ongoing correction to accumulate Nifty quickly.
Top picks for the week
cInternal Bank of India: Buy at Rs 39.5-38.5, Stop Loss: Rs 36.30, Target: Rs 44
As long as Rs 36.3 is secured, the setup remains constructive. The stock could rally at Rs 39.5-38.5 with a stop loss at Rs 36.3 and an upside target of Rs 44 in the next three months.
Hindu Kush: Buy at Rs 605-585, Stop Loss: Rs 545, Target Rs 700
The stock is making a higher base after a controlled pullback with gradual improvement. As long as Rs 545 is maintained, the broader structure remains positive.
Sachithand Uthikar
VP – Research (Technical & Derivatives), Trading Securities
Where is Nifty headed?
The Nifty struggled to regain the 50 mark with its daily RSI for most of the past week, reflecting weak momentum and limited buying sentiment. Although it closed the February 3 gap around 25,100, the failure to hold above the key moving averages and a close below the 200-day EMA in the last session turned the near-term bias slightly negative. This raises the possibility of a revisit to the 25,040-25,900 demand zone, where pre-buy interest has emerged. On the upside, 25,630—which aligns with the 50-DEMA—remains a key resistance.
A decision above that level is almost essential for the Bills to regain control. Options data suggests a compressed weekly range of 25,500 – 25,000. A strong put at 25,000 indicates strong support for the series, while the year-to-date build has weekly gains of around 25,500 caps. The 25,400 strike remains an interesting pivot for this short week. Any unusual relaxation here may precede a breakout from the 25,500-25,000 range.
Business strategies: For Nifty, long-short trading strategies remain prudent, as the index is likely to remain in the range between 25,500 and 25,000. Selling near support and near resistance within this band may remain the best strategy for short-term traders.
Top picks for the week
Simmons: Buy at Rs 3,424, Stop Loss: Rs 3,340, Target Rs 3,760
Strong long formation and weekly ADX position above 25 signal strengthening trend move. The formation indicates the early stage of a bullish wave, with the potential to extend to 4,000-plus in the coming weeks if the breakout continues.
SBI Cards and Payment Services: Sell at Rs 746, Stop: 782, Target Rs 670
The daily ADX is positioning for trend development, suggesting that volatility may increase on the downside. The 722 level (200 MEMA support) is at risk. A decisive breach can accelerate selling pressure.
