Tired sellers may be giving Bitcoin some breathing room — but analysts say it’s far from a recovery.
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US buyers are returning and pushing prices off multi-week lows
Data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium – a measure of US buying demand – has risen from its negative reading in early February to its highest point since October.
The move helped Bitcoin reach a one-month high of $74,000 on Thursday and briefly touch the 50-day exponential moving average. It didn’t last.
By Friday morning, the price had fallen more than $3,000 to below $71,000 as momentum faded almost as quickly as it had built.
The rally came amid a wave of ETF inflows and what Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, called a “new risk appetite.” But even as buyers moved in, broader conditions did not change.
Ruck said the move, coupled with macro uncertainty and softer economic signals, “quickly faced headwinds” for the market.
Despite the recent rally, Bitcoin is still in a bear market.
Our gap index remains at 10/100, deep in bear territory.
The current move is probably just a rally, not the start of a new bull phase. pic.twitter.com/bh4O6jQPD6
– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 5, 2026
Bear market indicators remain at historic lows
The CryptoQuant Score Index – a composite reading of Bitcoin’s technical and fundamental health – ranks just 10 out of 100. That puts it in deep negative territory, according to the company’s own valuation.
The company reports that this number has not moved despite recent price action. “Even after recent price gains, fundamentals and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment,” CryptoQuant said on Thursday.
The company was precise about what the short climb represents: a brief release of pressure, not a turning point.
Unexpected losses among traders and long-term holders were seen at the last level in July 2022 before the latest easing. Such fatigue can slow the slide without reversing it.
One signal that the pressure is easing came on Friday, when analysts said the market’s momentum was approaching a “critical inflection point.”
According to their assessment, Bitcoin may be breaking out of a phase marked by high negative momentum – a phase that often precedes broader changes in market direction. What that change looks like, and how quickly it will happen, remains unclear.
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Macro headwinds are keeping any optimism at bay
Adding weight to sentiment was February nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to show a slowdown. Analysts pointed to those “softer macro signals” as one reason why cryptocurrencies remain open to fresh downside.
Liquidity conditions were supportive enough to trigger a mild move, but not strong enough to sustain it.
Bitcoin’s short-term rise above $74,000 attracted attention. The return attracted more. With the Bull Score Index hovering near the floor and macro conditions still uncertain, analysts are watching to see if US buying demand will hold or falter as the rally continues.
Featured image from Defenders of wildlifechart from TradingView
