Joe Burnett, Bitcoin Strategist at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), argues that Bitcoin could reach $11 million by the first quarter of 2036, not because it will replace the financial system, but because it will become the dominant long-term savings asset in an economy shaped by deflation and the repeated expansion of AI. His thesis, outlined in a March 2nd Substack note, sees bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as an asset likely to attract excess liquidity in a world of declining production costs and chronic policy intervention.
Burnett’s main case is that the value of the Bitcoin network in 2036 is about $230 trillion. He sets that against a global financial asset base that he estimates could grow from more than $1 quadrillion today to $1.97 quadrillion over the next decade, assuming 7% annual growth. In this framework, bitcoin represents about 12% of the world’s financial assets.
“This result reflects a revision of the measure of global wealth to the only monetary asset with absolute scarcity,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin doesn’t need to replace all currencies. It doesn’t need universal everyday transaction use. It just needs to become the primary long-term savings asset in a world defined by the expansion of money and the deflation of technology.”
Bitcoin 2036 AI-Deflation thesis
At the heart of the debate is what Burnett calls “the AI deflationary engine.” His view is that artificial intelligence will squeeze labor costs, speed up production, and intensify competition in both the digital and physical industries, creating downward pressure on prices. He likens this transition to the displacement of horses by cars, but believes that this time the target is white labor. He wrote that AI is already taking over contract drafting, financial analysis, code writing, and research processing done by small professionals, while robotics will continue to expand into logistics, manufacturing, and agriculture.
Related reading
In a neutral monetary system, he says, such increases in productivity would only increase real purchasing power. In a debt-based fiat system, it becomes unstable. Falling wages, falling asset prices and nominal liabilities do not mix well. “As AI creates real economic deflation, central banks and fiscal authorities will expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral,” Burnett wrote. “The more effective AI becomes at cutting costs, the more aggressive the monetary response will be to prevent debt deflation.”
This policy reflex is the currency of Bitcoin. Burnett argues that every deflationary shock begins with a shift to cash and sovereign bonds, but this phase tends to lower rates, expand balance sheets, support credit, and fiscal transfers. He points to previous episodes in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as evidence that policymakers will not tolerate sustained deflation. The long-term result, he says, is persistent productivity deflation coupled with persistent monetary expansion, a combination that drives capital to seek an asset whose supply cannot be expanded politically.
From there, Burnett widens the lens. In his opinion, stocks are more prone to AI creative destruction. Real estate continues to hold dear, but technology can speed up design, permitting and construction, limiting long-term upside. Meanwhile, sovereign bonds offer nominal stability while being linked to currencies that are under permanent settlement. Bitcoin, he says, is in a different category because its maximum supply, scalability, portability and verifiability make it uniquely suited to absorb global liquidity over time.
He also links this thesis to a new market structure he calls “Digital Credit” – income securities backed by large bitcoin balances. Burnett cites publicly traded instruments such as STRC and SATA, which offer dollar income to debt investors and channel capital into additional bitcoin accumulation. This, he said, could create a reflexive loop between the demand for global income and the purchase of bitcoin.
Related reading
Notation relies heavily on sparse mathematics. Burnett writes that by 2036, less than 41,000 new BTC will be issued for the entire year. If global financial assets reach about $2 quadrillion, and only 1% of Bitcoin’s one-year incremental capital formation requires money storage, that’s still $1.4 trillion competing for the limited new supply — or about $34 million in demand for one new coin in circulation.
“The road won’t be smooth, but the conclusion is becoming clearer,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin’s trajectory toward eight-figure price levels reflects structural monetary conditions, not enthusiasm and ‘belief.’
His final point is less about real appreciation than time. Markets, he says, still price bitcoin as a volatile cyclical asset. The next decade, he believes, will see it increasingly priced as a monetary infrastructure. Whether or not this transition takes place anywhere near its $11 million goal, Burnett’s thesis is clear: if AI continues to abound and policymakers offset it with liquidity, bitcoin could end up as a growing share of global capital.
At press time, Bitcoin was at $66,958.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
