Bitcoin traders warn of new lows as BTC weathers Iran storm

Bitcoin (BTC) begins the first week of March 2026 with an explosion of new geopolitical unrest.

• Bitcoin is avoiding major volatility as a new Middle East conflict begins, but traders hardly care.

• BTC’s long-term price patterns lead to a new target of $45,000.

• Iran tensions are the macro target of the week, as analysis rejects the idea of ​​”World War III”.

• Inflation risks may provide a reason for the US to keep an Iranian attack as short as possible.

• Institutional bitcoin flows are finally teasing a major reversal after months of decline.

Bitcoin Is Surviving Iran Conflict – Now

Bitcoin price action struggled with selling sentiment despite the Iran conflict amid low liquidity weekend trading.

Data from TradingView shows that a trip to around $63,000 marked the peak of the market’s initial reaction before a sustained pullback began.

Now, traders see the events contributing to the stability of the crypto market.

“If it’s a bloodbath (unlikely), then I’d be long Bitcoin around $61-60k before news of easing talks,” said trader CrypNuevo on X thread.

CrypNuevo suggested that tapering would be a key trigger for the markets in the coming days and argued that anything else would be unfavorable for the US government.

“The truth is that this war is not suitable for Donald Trump in a midterm election year, here’s why: a prolonged conflict will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time, which will lead to higher oil prices and, as a result, higher inflation in the US. And it will not happen,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, Crypto trader Tony saw $62,000 as a potential long-term entry for BTC.

$BTC / US dollars – Update

We still have the untested range low at $62,200. Something to keep an eye on for potential long-term gains this week pic.twitter.com/C2ryTMvRZi

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) March 2, 2026

Others have warned of repeated price action with the formation of triangle structures as part of a continuing downtrend.

“$BTC is following the same pattern over and over,” concluded the BitBull trader.

“I think there will be a pump above $74k to trap late buyers before the next dump.”

$45,000 joins BTC’s lower price targets

BTC price bearish predictions remain stable for a long time.

The lack of momentum among the bulls, who failed to recover even close to the support level, leads to market predictions for 2026.

A trend line now in the focus of independent analyst Filbfilb calls for a further dive of 50% in the price of BTC.

“In all cases since inception, a week below the yellow band has led to a c.40-50 correction,” Philbphilb told X followers alongside a chart showing the historical price performance.

“The levels are around 40-45 thousand dollars for groups at the moment. Paying around 50 thousand dollars is not impossible, but in the end, the price matched the lower group.”

In further discussions, the rescue level to close the week came up, which is still not available on Monday at $72,000.

The $45,000 zone, Cointelegraph reports, is already a popular target for BTC’s long-term price floor.

In a post on his trading Telegram channel, Filbfilb added that open interest trends are also mimicking Bitcoin’s recent bear market. While the price itself is falling, open interest is increasing, which indicates an increase in short activity.

Analysis on Iran: “This is not World War III”

With little US inflation data this week, attention will focus on the Middle East and broader geopolitical instability.

Events in Iran sent WTI crude oil prices up 7% on Monday, while Asian stock markets fell as tensions rose around the world.

Volatility was visible as markets tried to assess the consequences of a military campaign against Iran that US President Donald Trump said could last for a month.

Trump said in a televised address on Sunday: “Operations are fully underway and will continue until all of our objectives are met. We have very strong objectives.”

Crypto markets remained volatile throughout the weekend, and Bitcoin held $65,000 as support as TradFi markets bounced back.

Trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest Asia Color market update: “About $300 million in long liquidations at press time, this is a significant but contained figure, especially compared to the chaotic events of early February.

“The relatively modest volume of forced selling suggests that the position has already eased significantly in recent weeks.”

QCP noted that the previous developments in Iran in June 2025 only caused a short divergence in the price of BTC before continuing the active rise of that time.

“Although the scale of this attack is much larger than last year, price action may indicate early signs of history repeating itself,” he added.

Business source Kobe’s letter had similar conclusions about the reactions of the markets in general. According to him, the price of oil was not a sign of panic.

“This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise,” it told X’s followers.

US inflation with oil volatility in focus

As Cointelegraph previously reported, concerns have been raised about the long-term impact of the Iran conflict on US inflation.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings are now under the microscope thanks to risks to oil trade routes, especially the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The February CPI is due out on March 11, and there is more than a month to go before the weekend’s events show up in the numbers.

Kobeisi wrote in an X post on the subject: “A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil prices above $100 per barrel, according to our analysis, which would increase US CPI inflation by ~5%.”

Recent US inflation releases have beaten expectations, some by significant margins, leaving markets sensitive to any unexpected catalysts.

“The rise in oil prices could have a significant impact on the inflation outlook,” the Mosaic Asset Company business source said in the latest edition of its regular newsletter “The Market Mosaic”.

“Changes in energy prices can lead to changes in headline inflation, with one study by the Federal Reserve estimating that every $10 increase in oil prices adds 0.20% to headline inflation.”

Mozaik likened the current situation to the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 and warned that geopolitics is not the only headwind for low oil prices.

“Energy prices were the main contributor to the wave of inflation that peaked at the highest level in 40 years in 2022,” he said.

“While the conflict in the Middle East will be a major catalyst for the movement in energy prices, a long period of investment in various energy and industrial commodities has already been the basis for the rally.”

However, Kobeissi argued that Trump’s own policies would seek to “repress inflation” and lower gas prices to keep any impact of the shock under control.

“A protracted war with Iran will work against these key initiatives, especially in the short term in an important midterm election year. We think Trump is aiming for a short, quick move and markets will once again win as the dust settles.”

Higher inflation reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and, in turn, reduces the prospect of liquidity inflows into crypto assets and risk. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting is just 4.4%.

The Bitcoin ETF has its ups and downs

While BTC’s price action is bearish and accepting the start of a new bear market, institutional entry is causing anxiety for onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

related to: Crypto Taxes Updated, BTC Remains Below $70K: Month On The Charts

Last week, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US saw three consecutive days of net inflows of more than $1 billion. Friday saw just $27.5 million in net outflows, according to UK-based Farside Investors.

“Recently, crypto markets have been showing some very specific chain signals that indicate a major shift in Bitcoin movement among different types of investors,” said CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha in a Quicktake blog post on Monday.

Taha said the latest surge in imports represents the first “substantial” rally since last October, around the time of Bitcoin’s $126,200 peak.

“This marks the first significant wave of accumulation after months of stagnation or recession,” he said.

“Historically, rising demand for ETFs is constructive for price, while falling demand often coincides with price weakness.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that the institutional solution of the Bitcoin investor will only strengthen over time, and the new influx of buyers will be less interested in selling with short-term price movements.

“Each cycle, weak hands filter out. And every cycle that replaces them is long-term capital,” explained EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson.

“2017: Retail sold for $20K. 2021: Funds sold for $69K. 2025: ETF Allocators sold for $63K.”

Jackson called the recent exodus of ETF buyers a “cleansing” of Bitcoin’s long-term bull case.