Arthur Hayes has been wrong before. In December, the co-founder of BitMEX predicted that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by March 2026. It didn’t happen. Bitcoin is trading near $71,000. Hayes is now looking to claim between $500,000 and $750,000 by the end of the year, and his arguments will go straight to the Middle East.
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War, spending and the federal
Hayes believes that the long-running US military conflict with Iran is putting severe pressure on federal finances. As government spending rises, he believes policymakers will have little choice but to cut interest rates and pump more money into the financial system. This combination—loose monetary policy and expanding liquidity—is what he believes will make Bitcoin skyrocket.
The argument is based, at least in part, on history. During the 1990 war, members of the Federal Open Market Committee openly cited Middle East instability as a factor in their deliberations.
Crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes predicts $500K – $750K Bitcoin by end of 2026???
Trump administration + Iran conflict + federal easing = 💸💥
He explains: pic.twitter.com/AU23sd216a
— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 2, 2026
In the late 1990s, the Fed lowered rates as economic confidence declined. After the September 11, 2001 attacks, then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan pushed for a 50-basis rate cut, which was implemented almost immediately. After a while, the markets stabilized.
Hayes draws a direct line from these episodes to what is seen now. Major military operations amount to hundreds of billions of soums. Fiscal pressure is increasing. The Fed is finally easing. Risky assets, including Bitcoin, are on the rise.
Hayes’ example has already made a bet on it
He made this point in a Substack post, where he wrote that investors can find a critical entry point once rates begin to fall or the money supply expands.
He named Bitcoin and several of what he called high-quality altcoins as assets that have been in the best interest since the start of this transition.
In his opinion, the main moment is not the conflict itself, but what comes after it. Rate cuts and fresh liquidity, he said, is what’s driving prices.
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The difference between a forecast and a chart
Bitcoin’s current price tells a different story than Hayes’ predictions. The coin is about halfway from its October peak of $126,000. While gold and oil rallied after US and Israeli attacks killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin did not follow suit. It initially sold off before recovering to current levels.
That split — commodities rallying while Bitcoin lags behind — hasn’t swayed Hayes’ outlook. His call remains unchanged at $500,000 to $750,000, believing that monetary policy, not headlines, will ultimately drive prices. Whether the Fed moves in that direction depends on how long and how costly the conflict will be.
Featured image from the US Air Force, chart from TradingView
