If one of the most interesting valuation models in the crypto industry is still valid, Bitcoin could be in for a massive long-term rally. According to analyst pseudonym PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model suggests that Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current half-term between 2024 and 2028.
A bold prediction comes even as it is Bitcoin does not show any trade marks at this level in recent days, but recent price action in the last 24 hours has seen it recover the $70,000 price level.
This is when Bitcoin will hit $500,000
PlanB’s Outlook for Bitcoin It’s not that the cryptocurrency’s price action will suddenly rise to $50,000, but the entire post-halving period from 2024 to 2028 could average at this level if the Stock-to-Flow framework continues as predicted. This is a more aggressive call than predicting a bullish cycle, as the $500,000 average means that Bitcoin will eventually spend meaningful time above the price level at some point in the cycle.
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Bitcoin’s current price correction is a test of whether the leading cryptocurrency is deeply undervalued at today’s levels, or whether the S2F model has finally broken for good.
The chart attached to PlanB’s technical analysis helps explain this $500,000 price prediction for Bitcoin. It covers Bitcoin price history with 200-week moving average, price action, RSI color and ladder path like Stock-to-Flow. The S2F point path for the 2024-2028 half window will reach approximately $500,000 in 2027.
Bitcoin S2F model. Source: Plan B on X
What will happen to Bitcoin?
Bitcoin spent last week the transition between recovery and stress, a stretch that saw the asset trade above $73,000 on March 5, before falling to the mid-$60,000s and then climbing back above $70,000 at the time of writing. This uncertain context of price action is what makes PlanB’s latest Stock-to-Flow price prediction stand out, as it takes a strong belief to predict an average price of $500,000 for Bitcoin.
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Recent price action places Bitcoin just above two long-term structural supports: the strike price and the 200-week moving average. Both of these supports are also seen in PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model diagram shared above. This doesn’t automatically prove that a six-figure or seven-figure breakout is in the offing, but it does support the idea that the entire structure of the cycle hasn’t completely broken.
As it turns out, about 43% of Bitcoin addresses keep at a loss most of which are short-term holders and Bitcoin treasury companies. However, many analysts have suggested that Bitcoin is on the mend has not yet found its endalthough it is down more than 45% from its October 2025 peak.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
