Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels historically seen near bear markets, indicating that selling pressure may be easing. Although confirmation is needed, the market is in an area that often shows late stage surrenders. The key question: was the last explosion the final flood, or is the last tremor yet to come?
RSI compression signals lower fatigue
According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back into the same territory that historically marked the end of a bear market. This momentum zone has repeatedly appeared in the closing stages of the retracement, making it an important signal that the market may be approaching another important point.
However, Batman is clear that this does not confirm that the bottom is already in place and emphasizes the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before announcing a reversal. However, he notes that when the RSI squeezes to these levels on a weekly basis, Bitcoin is usually closer to a structural low than the start of a new breakout.
Reflecting on the bear cycle of 2022, Batman notes that when the RSI entered this extreme zone, the price was able to print a final bottom. However, this move occurred very close to the final bottom, indicating that most of the downside was already done by the time such depressing readings were reached.
The analyst concludes that probabilities are more important than precision. From his perspective, when Bitcoin trades at these weekly RSI levels, it historically represents an area where strategic accumulation is becoming increasingly attractive.
Bitcoin’s six-week high in a row is a rare signal
In his weekly Bitcoin analysis, SuperBro noted that BTC has now posted six weekly highs and lows, a rare structural pattern. The last time this happened was during the 2020 COVID crash, a period marked by extreme volatility and the ultimate macro reversal.
The price is currently falling below the 200-week EMA and the point of volume control (POC), although the weekly candles have yet to close. A POC pullback before the close can trigger a sharp upward reaction and indicate that the breakout attempt is losing strength.
Just below current levels lies the rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of higher-term support. The RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that the momentum is already deeply stretched. When you combine the oversold conditions with the six straight bottom highs converging on key support, the argument for continued bearishness becomes less convincing.
Apart from the close structure, the wider formation of the megaphone remains unchanged. If this macro pattern eventually plays out, its upper trajectory projects potential targets north of $300,000, keeping a long-term bullish thesis on the table despite the current squeeze.
