Bitcoin (BTC) hit $70,000 on Monday as the shadow of war looms over the entire Middle East. Data from Glassnode shows that stockholders’ short-term loss carryovers have fallen to two-week lows over the past 24 hours, and the slowdown in exchange flows contrasts with the sell-off seen in early February.
Bitcoin short sellers are stepping back
Short-Term Owner (STH) Profit/Loss (P&L) for an exchange is a metric that tracks how much recent Bitcoin buyers send to exchanges with a profit or loss. These participants tend to increase volatility during stressful events.
On March 1, the realized loss was reduced to 3,700 BTC, even as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated in the Middle East. Bitcoin fell to $63,000 during that window, but the exchange’s inflows from the group did not widen in response.
In comparison, on February 5-6, STHs sent 89,000 BTC to the exchange with a realized loss within 24 hours. This marked a window of capitulation. Since then, harmful imports have steadily declined.
Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that the most sensitive holders did not accelerate the distribution and showed “zero panic”. The decline in loss carryover indicates that selling pressure by recent buyers has cooled.
A strong rally may depend on whether practical losses are sustained during this period of geopolitical uncertainty or accelerate to previous surrender levels.
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BTC futures deleveraging matches external liquidity
BTC derivatives data show significant risk reduction. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that open interest on Binance has dropped from 130,800 BTC since the beginning of the year to 97,680 BTC, a 25% decrease.
The estimated leverage ratio, which compares open interest to BTC exchange reserves, fell to a weekly average of 0.146. Levels below 0.15 have historically coincided with aggressive phases during this period.
On the technical side, Bitcoin is trying to recover its monthly RVWAP, which is currently high near the $68,000 area. The monthly RVWAP is the volume weighted average price anchored to the beginning of the month. Trading BTC above that will return the monthly average participant to a profit and often reverse the traders’ short-term position bias.
The four-hour chart shows the price moving up to $70,000, approaching the first outside liquidity pocket between $70,000 and $71,500. Turning this range into support could lead to an extension of prices to the $80,000 area, where previous supply rose in January. Crypto Trader LP said,
“In HTF, low leverage liquidation clusters are located near and slightly above range highs, sitting between 70-73K. These pools of higher liquidity often act as magnets when building size.”
BTC spot stream data adds further context. Spot Binance posted about $7.79 million in positive delta during the breakout leg, Coinbase added about $1.16 million, and OKX contributed about $3.7 million.
A positive delta across fields indicates aggressive bids rather than isolated activity based on individual derivatives. With reduced leverage and reduced loss selling, the market’s focus will shift to how price might react at the $71,500 liquidation level.
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