Bitcoin price recovery may be limited to $78k: Here’s why

Market analysts say that Bitcoin (BTC) is on a rally after a 17% recovery from multi-year lows below $60,000, but the $78,000 level is key to reversing the broader trend.

Key considerations:

• Bitcoin price is up 17% above $60,000 as onchain data shows signs of rebounding demand.

• BTC price resistance around $78,000 needs to be broken to end the downtrend.

Bitcoin buyers are coming back

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the volume of net Bitcoin buyers indicates that buyers are entering after the return of demand for BTC derivatives.

Net volume, a gauge that measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets, has remained positive since the start of the US-Israeli-Iran war.

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“After the conflict, the net volume of receivers, as measured by the 30-day moving average, was positive,” Coinbureau CEO Nic said in an X message on Wednesday.

This positive mode coincided with BTC’s recent recovery to $74,000, indicating that demand in derivatives markets is returning.

“It shows that buying volume is greater than selling volume,” Nick said, adding:

“Bitcoin buyers are in control.”

The Bull Score Index, a gauge that measures the overall health of the Bitcoin market using a combination of fundamental and technical metrics, further reinforces this picture.

The metric rose to 30 from 10 on March 6, the highest since late October 2025.

The index’s bullish phase has moved from “extra bearish” to “bearish,” said CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, adding:

“We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.”

Meanwhile, demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues, with these investment products recording three straight days of inflows totaling $529.2 million.

BTC price needs to break $78,000 to end the downtrend

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has spent more than four weeks consolidating in the $62,000-$72,000 range, with multiple failed attempts to maintain strong bases above $70,000.

Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain letter that the price is between the realized price (the average purchase price of the entire supply of transactions) at $54,400 and the underlying market value (the basis of the value of actively traded coins) at $78,000, Glassnode said:

“In the absence of broader macro headwinds, this range could very well support a bear market rally that is limited by the underlying market sentiment.”

The chart above shows that the price of BTC has been at these two cost levels for most of 2023, and the relief rallies have been repeatedly rejected by the underlying market sentiment. Finally, the price took off in October 2023 with the announcement of the approval of the US Bitcoin ETF as the main catalyst.

Trader and analyst Titan of Crypto said that a break of $78,000-$80,000 could indicate a change in the long-term trend.

Yesterday, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin’s upside may be limited to $78,000, and derivatives traders are pricing in a bearish probability of a BTC price decline in the near future.

Meanwhile, Glassnode said a repeated failure to hold above $70,000 would “push the medium-term retracement distribution to the downside,” and the price action at $54,000 would serve as a key support level to watch.

Other areas of focus include the 200-week exponential moving average at $68,300, the demand zone at $60,000-65,500, and the 200-week simple moving average at $58,800, which has historically provided the last line of defense in declining macro volatility.