Bitcoin has fallen below $70,000 as oil prices have surged more than 60% this year amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, adding to macro pressure on risk assets.
Conclusion
- Bitcoin is trading around $69,984 after falling 3.8% in the last 24 hours, although it is up around 7.8% for the week.
- Oil prices have risen more than 60% this year as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz fuel concerns about supply cuts and inflation.
- The increase in short-term volatility suggests that the Bitcoin market is entering a settling phase that could lead to a larger move in either direction.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $69,984 at press time, down 3.8% over the past 24 hours as risk sentiment softened in financial markets. The comeback comes after a volatile week.
Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is up about 7.8% for the week and has fluctuated between $63,176 and $73,669 over the past seven days. However, the cryptocurrency is still trading about 44% below its peak of $126,080 in October 2025.
Recent price movements have increased activity in the derivatives market. According to CoinGlass, open interest rose 1.24% to $44.39 billion, while trading volume rose 57.9% to $67.26 billion.
The increase shows that as global market uncertainty increases, traders are actively repositioning their portfolios.
Rising oil increases macro stress
A March 9 report by CryptoQuant analysts points to rising geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz as a potential headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Oil prices have risen more than 60% since the beginning of the year due to growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is an important part of global energy markets, accounting for about 20% of daily oil exports and about 35% of oil transported by sea.
If this limited transmission route is disrupted, electricity costs can increase significantly. Rising oil prices, analysts say, could worsen inflation and put pressure on financial markets that are already vulnerable to supply cuts.
This kind of macro environment has historically been difficult for Bitcoin. Sharp increases in oil prices often coincide with the latter stages of market cycles, when risk appetite begins to wane. Exposure to speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies could be dampened by rising geopolitical tensions.
The volatility of the market location shows again
According to a separate analysis using data from the Binance BTC Volatility & Range Engine, the volatility structure of Bitcoin has changed significantly in recent months. There was a significant short-term change.
After rising above 1.5 in February before falling again, the 7-day volatility gauge recently touched 0.72. Such sudden exits typically occur during periods of market stress and are often associated with significant portfolio adjustments or derivative liquidations.
However, long-term volatility remained relatively stable. The 30-day volatility is sitting around 0.50, while the 90-day gauge is near 0.57. This suggests that although short-term price volatility has increased, the overall market structure has not entered a phase of extreme volatility.
The average true range indicator is currently near 0.054, indicating a more moderate trading range compared to past periods of extreme market activity.
Taken together, the data suggests that Bitcoin is experiencing a settling phase after its previous rally. Buyers and sellers are still competing for control in the short term, which explains the recent increase in volatility.
At the same time, long-term volatility is maintained, which indicates that the market has not yet entered the full phase of panic or euphoria.
