Bitcoin remains in a broader corrective structure, but price action stabilizes after defending the $60,000 demand zone. The daily chart is still leaning cautiously as BTC ($67,630.00 ยท Live) is trading above the major moving indicators and below the bearish trendline resistance.
This puts the cryptocurrency at an important crossroads, where a higher push could extend the recovery towards oversupply, while a failure would keep the broader downtrend intact.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is still trading within a well-defined bearish structure, with the price below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 100-day MA is now lower near the $80,000 area, while the 200-day MA is still higher in the mid-$90,000s, indicating that the broader trend remains under pressure.
In addition, BTC is still moving under the downtrend that has guided the correction for months, which means that buyers have yet to see a convincing reversal of the structure.
That said, the reaction from the blue support zone around $60,000 was technically significant. Buyers came in aggressively after a sharp drop below $60,000 and BTC has since bounced back to the $68,000 area. The first major resistance remains around $76,000 to $80,000, where previous horizontal support has turned into supply. As long as Bitcoin remains below this zone, it is likely that their reversal will be considered as a correction.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is consolidating within an ascending channel, suggesting that the recent move from the lows is more of a recovery phase than a full reversal. Assets are currently hovering around $68,000 after rejecting the upper boundary of the channel near the $72,000 to $75,000 resistance zone. This rejection confirms that sellers are still active in rallies, especially as BTC approaches the confluence resistance, where the top of the channel coincides with horizontal supply.
The moment has also cooled significantly. The RSI pushed into overbought territory during the recent rally, but then reversed and fell towards neutral, showing bearish power in the short term.
For buyers, holding above the mid-channel area and continuing to defend the $64,000 to $65,000 area will hold the structure for another attempt higher. On the downside, a break below the lower border of the channel could send Bitcoin back to the $60,000 support zone and possibly even lower.
Chain analysis
From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin’s net profit and loss, or NUPL, has fallen sharply and is now sitting around 0.20. This is a huge recovery compared to the euphoric readings seen during the rally towards the period’s highs.
In simple terms, the market has written off a significant portion of the paper’s gains, which usually reflects a significant reduction in speculative surplus. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate trend reversal, it often creates a healthier base than the overheated conditions near the big peaks.
Historically, NUPL readings around this area indicate a market that is no longer in euphoria and is instead approaching the type of sentiment recovery that could support the formation of a medium-term base. This is consistent with the current price structure where Bitcoin is trying to stabilize after a heavy correction rather than accelerating into a new expansion leg.
So, the data on the chain shows that the downside risk is more limited than it is near the highs, but for a stronger case, improving the base of the chain still requires confirmation of the price by reestablishing higher resistance levels on both the daily and 4-hour charts.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Needs to Break This Key Level to Confirm a Real Rally appeared first on CryptoPotato.
