Bitcoin market cycles often have recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes that those recurring structures are already pointing to the next major bottom.
This is the fundamental principle of why Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns and Wyckoff work: trade an asset long enough and it starts to show pattern memory. For now, that memory speaks. And it refers to Bitcoin price below 40,000 US dollars.
Sample Memory and Bitcoin Back History
Chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards explained how Bitcoin returns behave may determine where the current recession will finally stabilize. The analysis revolves around the concept of pattern memory, the idea that assets with long trading histories tend to repeat certain patterns of behavior over time.
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Pattern memory shows that previous Bitcoin market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci levels from the previous peak. These levels have always acted as areas where the price of Bitcoin has finally made a lasting bottom before starting a new bull phase.
During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin finally bottomed out near the 0.86 Fibonacci retracement. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, once again reaching the 0.86 retracement before starting a new rally phase. However, the bottom of the market cycle in 2021 was slightly higher, around the 0.786 level.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @LisaNEdwards On X
Bitcoin Pattern Memory: Where is the Real Future Bottom?
If October 2025 the real period was high for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart suggests at 1M time, then history gives us a road map because that’s where the price is likely to start before the main bull run starts. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle creates a range that Bitcoin could eventually bottom if history repeats itself.
Mapping the current Fibonacci cycle from the low to October 2025 reveals three key areas. 0.618 is around $57,000-$58,000, which also aligns with the weekly moving average of 200. However, this level only may not represent the ultimate lowbased on how previous periods behaved.
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Instead, deep retracement levels are more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 retacments come into play. The retracement level of 0.786 is located near $39,000 and is moving with a monthly moving average of 100. Below that, the 0.86 retracement level is around $31,000.
Both levels have previously defined major cycle lows; therefore, Bitcoin may be a bearish long-term future somewhere in the range of $39,000 to $31,000 if the October 2025 peak is a true cycle high.
Some market commentators have set lower targets, including predictions that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 zone. However, sample-memory analysis shows that such an explosion is representative full distribution The behavior of the historical period of Bitcoin.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
