Bitcoin LTH supply is near record highs, despite retreating from its peak

Bitcoin warming indicators remain stable compared to previous market peaks.

Bitcoin’s realized LTH supply as of March 11, 2026 was 8.05 million BTC, representing a decline of about 5.5% from the period’s peak of 8,529,671 BTC recorded on March 8, 2026, when the asset traded at $65,974 and Zcore.

At the time of the last reading, the Z score had dropped to 2.66.

Compressed cycle

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., despite the recent pullback, the amount of bitcoin held by long-term holders during this period remains historically high. When compared to previous periods at the same post-midday stage, day 691 after the halving, the current period shows significantly larger assets.

In fact, the total volume of coins with long-term holders was found to be about 1.52 times higher than the 2020 cycle and about 3.4 times higher than the 2016 cycle at equivalent points. Adler explained that the current Z-score of 2.66 is very similar to the 2016 reading of 2.94 at the same stage. During the 2016 halving, the period witnessed the first phase of the final redistribution period, which continued for another 200 days until the metric peaked in December 2018.

On the other hand, the 2020 cycle showed a very different structure at the same time. On day 691 after the halving in this period, the Z-score was only 1.08, reflecting the end of the bear market following the Terra/LUNA crash, and LTH practical supply had already declined eight months from its peak.

Adler also checked the MA365 ratio, which currently stands at 1,595 for the current period. This level is lower than the equivalent ratio for the 2016 period, which was 2.523, and slightly higher than the value for the 2020 period, which was 1.502. According to the analyst, this means that the degree of warming will remain stable compared to the annual moving average.

In previous cycles, the final peaks in actual LTH supply occurred between days 880 and 912 after half-decline, approximately 190 to 220 days later than the current point in the cycle. During these periods, the Z score increased from 4.24 to 4.94 before finally reaching a peak. If the current cycle follows a similar timeline, Adler said the current peak may only represent an intermediate high, not the last.

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Accumulation loses momentum

However, he also noted that the current period is structurally different from previous periods, as institutional entry into Bitcoin ETFs has locked up a large number of coins, thereby reducing the supply share for active transactions and possibly accelerating the accumulation process among long-term holders.

There is also a slowdown in the momentum of accumulation, as the 30-day rate of change is currently +7.6%, well below the levels seen in comparable phases of previous periods, when the metric rose to 87% in 2016 and 51.6% in 2020. According to the analyst, the slowdown in the growth rate of the market may indicate a strong phase of market growth. seen in January and February 2026.