The founder of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards, says that Bitcoin has moved into an interesting historical zone, but it is not yet the deep discount zone that defined the best buying opportunities of previous periods. In his opinion, the setup is constructive for long-term holders, although there is still no confirmation needed to call a lasting bottom.
Speaking to Joe Shue of the Crypto Consulting Institute, Edwards framed bitcoin as “closer to top to bottom,” with multiple metrics on the chain pointing to value even as price action has suffered. However, he stopped short, calling the current range an outstanding opportunity.
“I think you can sum up bitcoin in a few words because it’s closer to the bottom than the top,” Edwards said. “A broad trend in the value range in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it’s not in the deep value range that would be really exciting to me that we’ve seen in previous cycles.”
This distinction is important. Edwards said Capriol still has a small net bitcoin position, but the levels that make him “very excited” are sitting around the production cost band around $50,000 to $60,000, and the $50,000 range is very attractive. Historically, he said, Bitcoin has spent months in this area during the lowest periods of zero.
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For investors with a multi-year horizon, Edwards said some exposure still makes sense. But he warned that cost alone is not enough. “Like any asset, stocks and everything, you can be in a value zone for a long time,” he said. What’s missing, he says, is a convincing signal of strength through a deeper selloff, a technical breakout or solid evidence of demand.
The institutional flow of Bitcoin is improving, but not decisive
One of the most obvious positives in Edwards’ framework is institutional buying. He described the net purchases of US ETFs and about 200 treasury companies as one of the most important metrics for Bitcoin, especially when these inflows exceed the daily mined supply.
“If it’s a net positive, especially if it’s more than the amount of Bitcoin per day, so it’s more than the organic supply, then that’s really positive,” he said. “We’ve all seen major price increases when it’s positive.”
However, he noted that most of these buyers remain under water. According to Edwards, about 80% of ETFs and treasury vehicles are currently undervalued, reinforcing what he calls “typical bear market plagues.” A more meaningful signal, he said, would be a strong uptrend for a week or two while Bitcoin remains above the $70,000 area, with a weekly close of around $71,500 acting as a line in the sand for short-term bullish prospects.
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Even then, he cautioned that a rally into the mid-$70,000s or low $80,000s would not necessarily end the broader bearish structure.
Quantum risk remains high
The biggest reason Edwards doesn’t want to be more aggressive is the risk of quantum computing, which he says will permeate Bitcoin’s rise in a way that previous cycles never have. He argued that the market has already priced in most of these concerns, but until Bitcoin Core developers treat it as a serious priority, its upside may be limited.
“I honestly think we’re not going to see the maximum until the core team gets it figured out,” Edwards said. “The opportunity is really skewed to the left, because when you get two or three or four original developers talking openly about the solution, I think we can make a significant change to the upside.”
This puts Bitcoin in an unusual position. Edwards sees macro fundamentals that should favor solid assets, with stable liquidity conditions, and gold in a long-term dominant mode over equities. Under normal circumstances, he suggested, this would be a favorable environment for Bitcoin as well. At the moment, he sees the market in value territory rather than true deep value, promising but not yet compelling.
At press time, BTC was trading at $71,466.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
