Bitcoin is consolidating near an important support group, with $77,000 emerging as a key level to watch. A break above it could indicate bullish momentum and a trend reversal, while holding it could keep Bitcoin in a correction phase or push it lower.
Bitcoin Approaches Critical Long-Term Support After 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement
Crypto analyst Luca noted that Bitcoin recently ticked off the high-term support in purple, briefly breaking away from the 0.786 Fibonacci point of interest around $65,900. After this move, the price is now approaching the previously lost support zone, which coincides with the lower structure of early April 2025. This area also coincides with the 3-day Bull Market Support Band, an area that has served as a strong reversal point several times over the past few months.
Luca explained that this combination of technical levels is why he has not yet reduced his hedge positions. Instead, he prefers to remain cautious until the market provides clearer confirmation of strength. According to Luca, such confirmation is likely to come from Bitcoin missing a support range or a break from the Bull Market Support Band.
Until that happens, the analyst warns, the current approach to the region could still lead to rejection, meaning the move could be a temporary blip rather than a confirmed recovery. Luca also stressed that traders should focus more on protecting capital than chasing profits at this stage. Only when there is clear strength and the probability is moving towards a solid continuation of the upside will it be appropriate to take a more aggressive position.
$77,000 appears as an important confirmation level for BTC
According to Luca, his key endorsement level is now around $77,000. A decisive break above this level indicates strong market momentum. As such, Luca plans to gradually exit his hedge positions and convert that capital back into his shares, waiting for a more sustained move to the upside.
Luca also noted that trying to squeeze an additional 10-15% profit at current levels may not be the best risk decision. Instead of aggressively chasing short-term gains, he is waiting for clear confirmation that the market structure is changing in favor of the bulls.
He added that if Bitcoin successfully recovers the $77,000 level, the potential upside could increase significantly. However, exiting hedge positions too early can expose traders to the risk of false positives, where the price briefly rises higher before resuming its downtrend. Because of this possibility, Luca is maintaining a cautious stance until stronger confirmation emerges.
