Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) could be poised for a retracement that could see it rise 54% after this year’s US midterm elections.
New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance shows that post-midterm elections have historically been positive for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Does Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns?
In research shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has not reported a negative return in the 12 months following a midterm election, averaging a 19% return. During the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average growth of 54% in each of the three years previously recorded.
Binance’s analysis further shows that midterm election years often lead to political instability, resulting in an average decline of about 16% from the peak of the S&P 500, marking the weakest years of a four-year presidential term.
Related reading
Tracking Bitcoin since 2014, research shows that the market leading cryptocurrency This has reflected the dynamics of the market, which has declined by 56% over the intervening years.
The study highlights what they call the “Post-Election Opportunity,” because markets historically rise significantly when election results are settled and uncertainties are removed.
The exchange confirms that the year after the midterm elections was particularly strong for the market to return, thus setting the stage for Bitcoin’s potential gains.
If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a recovery. However, probably not the highest new records. The cryptocurrency is down 70% on average all time highs in previous bear market periods.
With Bitcoin steam’s market peak at $126,000, a potential drop to $37,800 could precede a 54% rally by Binance, potentially bringing the price back to around $58,000. However, some analysts point out that the bottom of the market may have already been reached.
Is the end of the bear market near?
NewsBTC reported On Wednesday, CryptoQuant analysts suggested that Bitcoin may be in the final stages of a bear market, especially after it fell to $59,900 on February 6.
Related reading
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, targeting the key resistance level of $73,000. This stage can show the final stage of collection bear period, which often succeeds with significant recovery, although not on the right path.
Given this pattern, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post-midterm elections in the US could push the cryptocurrency back to $107,000 for the first time since November 2025.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
