Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, revealed his latest Bitcoin prediction: hit the buy button now. Speaking on the Obstacle Stories podcast, the typically hyperbolic trader admitted that if he had $1 to invest right now, he wouldn’t put it in Bitcoin. He is strictly in wait and see mode. Despite his bitcoin price prediction of $250,000 this time around, Hayes argues that the market doesn’t have the fuel it needs to go higher right now.
The hesitation comes from one particular source: the Federal Reserve. For Hayes, the “money printer” is the only signal that matters, and until it turns on again, he believes the risks outweigh the rewards.
Arthur Hayes and his Bitcoin prediction: Fed controls BTC throttle
To understand Hayes’ latest Bitcoin prediction, you need to ignore the charts for a moment and look into the engine room of the economy: Liquidity. Simply put, liquidity is the amount of cash and credit that flows through the financial system. When the Federal Reserve prints money (QE) or lowers interest rates, they flood the system with cash. This forces investors to buy risky assets like Bitcoin to beat inflation.
Hayes cites macroeconomics as a major driver of crypto prices. He divides the market environment into two distinct types:
- Aggressive Fed (Current Situation): Policy is tight. The government is not printing enough new money to depreciate the dollar significantly. Investors put their cash in safer assets. Bitcoin is starving for capital.
- Soft Fed (The Pivot): The Fed cuts rates or prints money to finance government debt or wars. The liquidity of the dollar is expanding. Investors are flocking to scarce assets like Bitcoin.
We’ve seen Bitcoin and stocks stabilize when liquidity is neutral, but Hayes argues that they won’t be able to start a true parabolic run until the “liquidity ball” reopens.
Discover: The best crypto predictions of 2026
Hayes’ position: Waiting for the printer
Hayes isn’t dismissive of Bitcoin’s long-term value; he is indifferent to the present tense. “If I had $1 right now, would I put it in Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” he said. Hayes clearly expects the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.
His thesis links geopolitical tensions directly to money printing. “The longer this conflict drags on, the more likely the Fed will have to print money to support the American war machine,” Hayes said. In his view, war is expensive and the government ultimately pays by expanding the money supply.
However, he cautions that the market has not reached that level yet. While many believe that “war is good for Bitcoin,” Hayes corrects this: “Printing money is good for Bitcoin.” Until the printing actually begins, uncertainty rules the day.
DISCOVER: The next possible 1000x crypto in 2026
Bear Case: $60,000 Risk Zone
Here’s the twist: things can get ugly before the money printer even kicks in. Hayes warns that escalating tensions between the US and Iran could lead to a massive sell-off in risk assets. When fear rises, investors don’t immediately buy bitcoin: they sell everything to get cash.
Hayes points to a specific negative target. With Bitcoin trading around $69,200, he warns that panic selling could push the price below the $60,000 level. He noted that it “could be some kind of big series of eliminations.” If the used gear dealers are gone, the price will often overcorrect for the disadvantage.
This is consistent with broader market fears, where geopolitical tensions often trigger liquidity crunches before recovery begins. Hayes positions himself so he doesn’t get stabbed during this instability.
DISCOVER: 5 high-risk cryptos
Bitcoin Forecast Arthur Hayes: “I won’t buy BTC for even $1.” appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
