Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering in a trading range between $60,000 and $73,000, entering what analytics platform CryptoQuant describes as “the most nervous phase of the cycle.”
According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV, Bitcoin finds itself in a period characterized by increasing uncertainty, with market signals showing more ambivalence than firm conviction.
Market signals
Three key indicators of the chain point to a psychologically difficult phase for market participants, especially Apparent Demand, CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator and SOPR Long Holder.
After the recent sell-off, Apparent Demand initially showed signs of recovery, suggesting that opportunistic buyers stepped in to capitalize on the recent price decline. However, this rise was short-lived and quickly retreated into negative territory.
Moreno also highlighted the lack of consistent buying pressure in the Bitcoin market, which he believes shows that market players are still cautious and hesitant to aggressively accumulate BTC at current prices.
The CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle indicator, as seen in the chart below, further reinforces this sentiment as it is currently showing a phase usually associated with bear market consolidation.
Moreover, the analyst noted that the dynamics of behavior in the game can affect the spending bases of different market groups. He claims that when short-term holders realize losses or switch to long-term holders, the realized price of Bitcoin may fall.
Finally, the Long-term Holder SOPR metric shows that even experienced investors are starting to realize losses when they fall below the critical threshold of 1. Historically, this occurs in the late stages of bear markets when widespread uncertainty erodes even firm beliefs in asset value.
Bitcoin Eyes $72,000-$73,000 Resistance Level
Against the backdrop of geopolitical events, Bitcoin has shown resilience, outperforming gold and traditional stocks amid the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran.
Crypto stocks have also benefited given their ability to trade around the clock, unhindered by bank schedules. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune:
The structure of 24/7 Crypto is more advantageous for the asset class. As the Iran conflict flared over the weekend, local crypto markets were the only open venue for global risk trading, a structural advantage that traditional markets could not replicate.
In addition, Bitcoin saw a positive increase of about 4% after President Trump’s comments that the war could end. Trump said, “I think the war is too complete, too much,” adding that Iran has “nothing left in the military sense.”
While trying to consolidate near $70,000 at the time of writing, Bitcoin is also trying to break its local high in the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone that was successfully tested last week.
Selby emphasized that a sustained close above this threshold with significant volume could turn the story from a short compression to a real momentum recovery.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
