Bitcoin (BTC) started the week with a sharp rally, pushing the world’s largest cryptocurrency back above the $74,000 mark for the first time in more than a month on Wednesday. However, as the week comes to an end, this momentum has waned and BTC has returned to around $68,260.
Even with the bearish price action, analyst firm Amber Data argues that Bitcoin’s broader outlook remains constructive. In its latest market report, the company suggests that this year is at an all-time high.
Recovery after liquidation
Amber information describes Bitcoin will enter 2026 in an unusual state. It said the market was “at risk” after the October liquidation event, which it said removed too much leverage from the market.
In the report, they claim that open interest has risen to “unsustainable levels”, underlying trades are overcrowded and funding rates reflect a long position.
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As headlines related to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the oversold structure could not withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of eliminations that destroyed the weak hands and reestablished the position.
As painful as it was, the adjustment served a purpose. Values have since stabilized, leverage has largely been purged from the system, and Bitcoin market structure looks healthier, noted Amber Data.
However, the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still poor and carry trades – once a key driver of activity – are no longer attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound, but lacks a clear catalyst to determine its next move.
The ‘Trouble’ Phase
In its base case, which assigns a probability of 50%, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This result suggests extensive consolidation until a meaningful macrocatalyst emerges.
Under this “organizational” scenario, conditions are neither significantly worse nor significantly better. Volatility compresses, cools enthusiasm, and brings expectations of both bullish and bearish reversals. predictions of failure they are disappointed again and again.
The first signs that support this scenario include annual interest rates recovering to 8-10%, continued inflows of Bitcoin ETFs, order book depth returning to pre-crash conditions, and funding levels stabilizing in positive territory.
25% Probability of Bitcoin breaking to $180,000
Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to an optimistic outcome, and Bitcoin will rise from $120,000 to $180,000. In this case, institutional participation accelerates along with sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of wide-ranging flows.
Early confirmation signals include weekly Bitcoin Enter the ETF over $1 billion, prime rates increase by more than 15% as demand increases leverage and new accumulation groups appear in the HODL wave data, indicating new capital inflows at scale.
The bear case is $60,000
On the downside, Amber Data has a 20% chance of a low scenario where Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This will happen if macroeconomic conditions worsen sharply than currently expected and global markets move decisively into risk-on mode.
Warning signs include steady ETF outflows of more than $1 billion per week, a decline in underlying returns of more than 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions that indicate capital flight, and a possible test of the $80,000 ETF value level.
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Finally, the company describes a possible 5% “volatility and chop” scenario where Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 without a stable directional trend.
Indicators include sudden changes funding criteriamomentum overlaps and collapses in clear favor as positions are liquidated on both sides and inconsistent ETF flows alternate between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
