Recent Bitcoin price action may show its first symptoms easing as a closely watched indicator linked to US demand has only changed direction. The Coinbase Premium Gap has returned to positive territory after nearly 10 weeks of persistently negative readings, a stretch that coincided with Bitcoin’s decline from around $95,000 to $65,000 in February.
Coinbase Premium is turning positive
The Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase, the primary exchange for US institutional and retail investors, and its price on offshore platforms such as Binance, remained in negative territory for the entire Bitcoin correction from $95,000 to the mid-$60,000s.
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Whenever the Coinbase Premium Gap is negative, it usually means that traders in the United States are selling Bitcoin at a faster rate than buyers. A positive gap shows the opposite dynamics of demand from American investors, which makes the price of Coinbase higher than the price in the global market.
It is worth noting that the metric entered the stable negative zone on January 1 and remained there until March 7, during which time demand for the US among crypto investors was largely absent.
At its worst, the gap reached -175 on February 2nd, which coincided with the sharpest phase of the Bitcoin price crash. At the time of writing, Coinbase Premium Gap has now turned positive, registering a reading of +25.4. according to information shared by CryptoQuant analyst @IT_TECH_PL. Returning the Coinbase Premium Gap from the low -175 to a positive reading is the first step a radical change in the market structure.
Diagram image from X. Source: @IT_TECH_PL
The current reading, while still early and modest relative to the depth of the previous negative regime, is the first consistent sign that the U.S. Spot demand may return to Bitcoin. This shows that the same participants can accumulate Bitcoin slowly compared to the rest of the world. However, the broader structure of Bitcoin price action still leaves room for further downside before a final bottom is formed.
Bitcoin may still fall to $50,000
Although several chain signals gradually become constructive, some analysts are cautious before announcing a wider correction. Technical analysis by crypto analyst Ted Pillows points to a long-term technical indicator that always coincides with Bitcoin’s bottom.
According to his observation, the two lowest bear market lows occurred below the 300-week exponential moving average (300W EMA). In both cases, Bitcoin fell more than 15% below the indicator before establishing a final bottom.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TedPillows On X
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Bitcoin’s 300-week EMA is currently around $57,100. Applying the same pattern means a possible move to about $50,000, which is about 15% lower than the indicator. However, this prediction does not guarantee that Bitcoin will revisit this level before forming the bottom.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
