Bitcoin (BTC) threatened to mount new resistance heading into Sunday’s weekly close as traders focused on oil and gold.
Main points:
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Bitcoin risks strengthening its 200-week exponential moving average as new resistance this week.
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The price cannot return to the main trend line for support because of the breakout.
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Oil and gold are seen as the main catalysts for BTC price volatility.
BTC price’s 200-week trend line is in focus
Data from TradingView showed a multi-day low of $66,569 for BTC/USD over the weekend.
This placed the pair below the major trend line of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which it has repeatedly tried and failed to recover as support.
In the comments, the trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the importance of losing the 200-week EMA, which is currently at $68,310 during the closing of the week.
“Bitcoin has actually broken above the 200 EMA once again and the price has canceled out much of the recent pullback,” he said in an X post on Friday.
Rekt Capital added that weekly down candles “continue to strengthen the EMA as resistance.”
Prior to February, BTC/USD was last close below the trend line on the weekly time frame in early March 2023.
On a more optimistic note, trader Merlijn argued that the price could retrace the 2023 structure that eventually led to a major rally after the retracement of the 200-week EMA.
BITCOIN IS TESTING THE FIELD THAT STARTED THE RECENT RALLY.
In 2023, the 200 EMA emerged as the headline for the entire move.
Price took it back.
Tried it again.
Then it exploded higher.$BTC now returns to the same structure close to 65 thousand dollars.Keep at it and the sequel will come.
Lose it… and… pic.twitter.com/DIMAWzxGss– Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 8, 2026
All about oil and gold, says Bitcoin trader
With macro tensions high in the air thanks to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the focus was already on commodities and safe havens ahead of the TradFi trading week.
related to: ‘Unpopular’ Bitcoin Exodus Sees 32K BTC Leave Exchanges in One Day
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michael van de Poppe directly linked gold and oil indicators to the possibility of a Bitcoin recovery.
“All eyes on oil and gold and silver tomorrow. If they move in favor of Bitcoin, we could be back to the highs next week and the worst is behind us,” he told X’s followers.
“If not, I would be a big buyer in the $60k region if we test the lows again.”
WTI crude oil rose nearly 16% on Friday, while gold hit an all-time high of $5,200 after a failed rematch.
Pointing to record low relative strength indicator (RSI) readings, Van de Poppe said Bitcoin is clearly undervalued against the precious metal.
“The value of $BTC against gold has not changed,” he wrote on X.
“This is by far the lowest RSI in the history of this particular metric so far: – Gold is overvalued in the short term. – Bitcoin is undervalued in the short term.”
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