Bitcoin (BTC) is on course for its strongest weekly gain since September 2025, defying a broader backdrop of risk posed by an escalating US-Israeli-Iran war.
Basic considerations:
-
The strategy raised $776 million this week, which could lead to the purchase of over 11,000 BTC.
-
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs had $767 million in revenue during the same period.
STRC refers to the $776 million purchasing power of Bitcoin
As of Saturday, BTC/USD has gained more than 7% in the past week to around $70,625. During the same period, the S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 1.60%.
The divergence came as STRC.LIVE estimates indicated that Strategy could raise enough money to buy more than 11,000 BTC by selling its STRC instrument on the market this week.
At current prices, that’s about $776 million in Bitcoin.
STRC is Strategy’s income sharing tool that helps it grow investor cash to buy Bitcoin. When it trades at a nominal value of $100, the Strategy can issue more shares and convert this demand into new BTC purchase capital.
related to: Bitcoin undergoes “geopolitical stress test” as BTC price rises above $72k
Last week, Strategy bought 17,994 BTC, which was worth about $1.28 billion at the time. About 30% of the BTC distribution was financed by the proceeds of the STRC sale.
Bitcoin prices were also boosted by US Bitcoin ETFs, which posted net inflows of $767 million over five trading days, reflecting rising demand for BTC despite the Middle East crisis.
Bitcoin gains during geopolitical crises
In the past, Bitcoin has experienced lows at the start of major geopolitical conflicts, only to recover and make bigger gains.
In February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused an initial dump, but it was followed by a 40% drop in BTC’s price, as shown below.
A similar sequence followed Israel’s attacks on Iran in June 2025. Bitcoin then briefly fell, then rallied and gained nearly 25% over the next two months.
In January 2020, the US-Iran firefight after the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, Bitcoin increased by more than 50%, although the initial reaction included a short drop in price.
The price of Bitcoin could rise further if history is any indication, and macro models point to a rise to $100,000 in the coming months.
The bearish flag keeps BTC’s downside risks intact
Conversely, the formation of a bear flag on the Bitcoin chart increases the probability of a bull trap.
Bear flags appear when the price rises within a rising and parallel channel after a strong trend. They are usually resolved when the price breaks through the lower boundary and declines as high as the previous trend.
By Saturday, Bitcoin showed signs of upside exhaustion near the upper border of the flag, which also corresponds to the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, red line) around $72,750.
Applying the bearish flag principle to the Bitcoin chart, the measured downside target is around $51,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
