The last time a Big Ten school won the NCAA Tournament, Dusty May was a senior at Indiana and preparing for a career in coaching by working as team manager for Bob Knight.
Considering the Michigan coach turns 50 in December, it really has been a long time since Michigan State, led by Tom Izzo, Mateen Cleaves and the rest of the Flintstones, won the 2000 NCAA title in Indianapolis.
Now, a few years later, May has put together the most dominant team in the Big Ten since Izzo’s championship. This means the Wolverines have a great opportunity to break the league’s 25-year absence from the “One Shining Moment” spotlight.
As of Friday morning, Michigan was the favorite to win it all, according to BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and probably every other online sportsbook.
If you don’t care what the gambling world thinks, Michigan is ranked No. 1 in Wins Above Bubble, an important metric the NCAA Tournament Committee likes, and a close second in the national NET rankings, behind Duke and a close second on KenPom.
Michigan’s KenPom rating of +38.39 is the fourth highest since Ken Pomeroy began calculating rankings in 1996-97. Standing out for their depth and a frontcourt led by All-American first-teamer Yaxel Lendeborg, the Wolverines follow Duke in 1999, Duke in 2024…and a Duke team that topped them Saturday night in Washington, D.C.
Michigan boasts such a high ceiling, but has had trouble hitting that ceiling over the past few games, so May spends a lot of time boosting and cajoling the team these days.
After Tuesday’s relatively close home win over Minnesota that clinched the Big Ten title, May said, “We have these big, lofty goals ahead of us…”, “I know this: The deeper we get into this, the more gear our guys can use…”, “I’m proud of our guys for being able to weather the storm to get through this (Big Ten) marathon to get us to this point. If you collapse in the last five miles of the marathon and can’t stay hydrated, it’s all for naught. “We have to keep trying, moving forward and getting better.”
But Michigan (26-2) isn’t the only Big Ten team on the short list of teams with a legitimate chance to win the NCAA title on April 6 in Indianapolis.
Another Big Ten team that could win the title.
How do we know? Ken Pomeroy KenPom), Bart Torvik (T-Rank), Kevin Pauga (KPI), Evan Miyakawa, etc. Over the past decade or so, steady improvements in statistical analysis, predictive metrics, and results-based metrics have made it easier to identify truly championship-worthy teams.
Put another way, it’s nearly impossible for a great team’s potential to be disguised by an unbelievable record. For example, Illinois enters Friday’s visit at Michigan with a 22-6 record. That currently places him only 10th in the Associated Press Top 25 and 11th in the coaches poll.
However, KenPom rates the Fighting Illini as the fourth-best team in the country, despite their record showing they have the most efficient offense in the country. Torvik’s Illini are fifth.
It may not seem like it makes much of a difference whether they are considered the 5th or 10th best team in the country, but when you look at the results over the past 10 years, you’ll see that the difference is huge.
Here are the last 10 NCAA champions and where they were in KenPom’s national rankings when the brackets were released on Selection Sunday.
2025: Florida 2nd place
2024: Connecticut #1
2023: Connecticut No. 4
2022: No. 6 Kansas
2021: Baylor No. 4
2019: Virginia #1
2018: Villanova 2nd place
2017: UNC 3rd place
2016: Villanova 5th place
2015: Duke ranked 6th
Of course, there’s no rule that says you have to be in the top six in the country on March 15th. Otherwise, you can’t win an NCAA Championship. But the trend is clear. That’s why Illinois coach Brad Underwood won’t say that Michigan came close to winning the conference title.
“I couldn’t tell you the Big Ten standings, and that’s what I mean,” Underwood said Thursday. “I can’t tell you what it is. Michigan is definitely in position to win the league, but I can’t tell you who is where. That’s a waste of my time.
“I pay attention to analytics and where we are, NET, KenPom, Torvik, everything. I pay attention to that because there’s a wide range of stuff out there that helps me measure my team a lot more than (the rankings).”
Currently, two Big Ten teams can dream of a title, with Michigan ranked second and Illinois ranked fourth in KenPoms. Does anyone else belong next to Duke, Arizona, Florida, Houston or Iowa State?
Purdue, ranked No. 8 by KenPom, has plenty of time to move into the top six, but the Boilers continue to fall short in key matchups. Thursday’s two-point loss to Michigan State gave them home games to Michigan State, Illinois and Sparty. And the 23-point loss to Iowa State on Dec. 6 will also have reverberations come NCAA seeding time.
So what about No. 10 Michigan? Maybe so, but Izzo seems to have a similar team to last year when they had to fight patiently to reach the Elite Eight. Izzo endorsed that perspective on Peacock’s postgame show Thursday, sharing how much he enjoyed spending 90 minutes with former Purdue coach Gene Keady that morning. Among other things, they talked about how much of the team didn’t fit together today.
“I said, ‘One thing I have is that we’re not overly talented, but we’re connected and we’re in this together,’” Izzo said.
And what about No. 12 Nebraska? It was a legendary year for Fred Hoiberg’s team. But how can you plan an NCAA Championship for a school that has never won an NCAA Tournament game?
