Best College Basketball Betting Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, March 4th

College basketball rosters become more relevant every day as March Madness approaches.

These are Deadspin’s two best betting picks for the Wednesday, March 4 slate of games.

Arkansas vs. Texas

This is a huge game for both teams. Arkansas is currently projected to be a No. 5 seed, and it will be very important for them to maintain that No. 5 seed this season rather than fall to a No. 6 seed. Texas sits in the 10th line, and they will be looking to solidify their position here.

I expect Arkansas to be too talented at home compared to Texas, but we’re spread out too much.

Both teams will be looking to score at the rim throughout this game. Texas has been better at defending the paint throughout conference play. The Longhorns’ main concern is their willingness to foul, but Arkansas does not draw fouls at a high rate.

The biggest takeaway here may be Arkansas’ lack of depth. They run short rotations, forcing them to stay out of foul trouble.

However, Texas currently ranks second in the NCAA in FTA/FGA and has several players who can draw fouls at an elite rate. Matas Vokietaitis ranks third in the country in drawn fouls per 40 minutes (8.7). Dailyn Swain also has 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes.

If Arkansas gets into any kind of foul trouble, Texas should have a big lead. Another factor is that the Razorbacks know this, potentially forcing them to play a little tentatively in this style of matchup.

Bet Where: Texas +7.5 Spread | -115 at BetMGM

Miami (FL) and SMU total score of 160.5 or higher

The game features two completely different ways of scoring points, with two teams having one thing in common.

First, both Miami and SMU will pick up the pace. Their offensive speed this season is 89th and 35th, respectively. Both teams will be looking to push the ball as much as possible to gain extra possession.

The Hurricanes allow their opponents to score at an excellent rate on 3-pointers. The Mustangs don’t score many points from deep, but that’s due to a lack of shooting, not a lack of efficiency. They have six players shooting better than 35 percent from beyond the arc, including four players with 40 or more 3-pointers this season.

On the other hand, SMU also forces opponents to beat them from deep. It’s not where Miami thrives, but there are other ways to score. While the Mustangs have struggled with offensive rebounding, the Hurricanes rank 12th in the NCAA in offensive rebound percentage (37.7%).

Ultimately, I expect both teams to make plenty of 3-pointers, but Miami will also need to find plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game.

Betting Where: Miami (FL) and SMU with a total points of 160.5 or more | -110 at BetMGM

2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 1-1