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The Labor Party has been battling persistent inflation, but economic shocks from the Middle East will make the task much more difficult, putting additional pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates.
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Private forecasts already suggest that inflation will be in the high 4% range.
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We’ve run a couple of scenarios that make clear some realistic assumptions about global oil prices and how that could potentially flow into inflation, and over how long, if we were writing those forecasts today, we’d have inflation peak somewhere between four and four.
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Chalmers says the May 12 budget will be “tough” but will include reforms, which will likely include changes to the capital gains tax discount and other tax settings.
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Welcome to Guardian Australia’s Sunday live news blog. My name is Ima CaldwellI’ll bring you the latest news today.
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Firstly this morning, the minister of the interior, Tony Burkeconfirmed that three more members of the Iranian women’s football team have left Australia. The decision means only three of the seven team members will remain in Australia on special protection visas.
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In New South Wales, the Minns Government is introducing legislation to combat property underpricing by significantly increasing penalties. More on that soon.
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And on the federal policy front, we hope to hear from Jim Chalmers and Barnaby Joyce in television interviews this morning.
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Stay tuned for all that and more.
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Key events
Chalmers: inflation could reach the “high four”
Tom McIlroy
Jim Chalmers has confirmed that Treasury modeling suggests war and other economic conditions could push inflation in Australia to a “medium to high” level.
The Labor Party has been battling persistent inflation, but economic shocks from the Middle East will make the task much more difficult, putting additional pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates.
Private forecasts already suggest that inflation will be in the high 4% range.
We’ve run a couple of scenarios that make clear some realistic assumptions about global oil prices and how that could potentially flow into inflation, and over how long, if we were writing those forecasts today, we’d have inflation peak somewhere between four and four.
Chalmers says the May 12 budget will be “tough” but will include reforms, which will likely include changes to the capital gains tax discount and other tax settings.
Tom McIlroy
No fuel shortages expected, says Chalmers
Jim Chalmers told Sky the government does not expect Australia to run out of fuel amid the ongoing war in Iran. About a fifth of the world’s oil supplies travel through the Strait of Hormuz and the growing conflict has already wreaked havoc on international prices.
“We have large reserves of fuel, whether it’s petrol, diesel or jet fuel, and we’re working around the clock to make sure Australia doesn’t run out of fuel. We certainly don’t expect that to happen,” Chalmers said.
Asked whether petrol prices could rise above $3 a liter in Australia, Chalmers says it depends on the scale of the war.
We don’t have a model that will make oil prices go up that much, but there is a lot of volatility and a lot of unpredictability in the global oil market.
Chalmers says the government is working with the competition watchdog to ensure retailers do not increase prices.
Tom McIlroy
Treasurer praises officials involved with Iranian soccer team
Jim Chalmers has praised officials who helped members of the Iranian football team as they considered asylum claims in Australia.
The government confirmed on Sunday that three more members of the squad had decided to return to Iran after initially seeking protection here.
Chalmers told Sky that Home Affairs officials had worked to help the team in extraordinarily difficult conditions.
“They are absolutely top notch and have been working around the clock on these issues,” he said.
How these things play out is ultimately a matter of those officials determining that they have done the best they can for these Iranian women under extreme and extraordinary pressure, and often that requires some pretty dramatic and unusual steps, like the ones you’ve described.
Good day
Welcome to Guardian Australia’s Sunday live news blog. My name is Ima CaldwellI’ll bring you the latest news today.
Firstly this morning, the minister of the interior, Tony Burkeconfirmed that three more members of the Iranian women’s football team have left Australia. The decision means only three of the seven team members will remain in Australia on special protection visas.
In New South Wales, the Minns Government is introducing legislation to combat property underpricing by significantly increasing penalties. More on that soon.
And on the federal policy front, we hope to hear from Jim Chalmers and Barnaby Joyce in television interviews this morning.
Stay tuned for all that and more.
