March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.62%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures ( NQH26 ) are down -0.61% this morning as escalating Middle East conflict pushes up oil prices and weighs on risk appetite.
WTI crude oil prices rose more than +7% as concerns grew that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy markets for a long time. Iraq halted operations at oil terminals after two foreign tankers ran aground in the water, catching fire and causing an oil spill. Also, UKMTO said on Thursday that a container ship has sunk off the coast of Dubai. Separately, Oman temporarily evacuated a major export terminal, while Bahrain said Iran had targeted its oil storage tanks.
The International Energy Agency said the conflict is causing an unprecedented disruption in oil markets, affecting 7.5% of global supply and an even larger share of exports. The IEA said it now expects oil supplies to increase by just 1.1 million barrels a day this year, down from its previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels.
Fitch Ratings analysts said in their latest outlook on Wednesday that global economic growth is expected to remain steady this year, provided the current oil price shock proves temporary. However, if oil prices rise to $100 a barrel and remain at that level, global GDP will shrink by 0.4% after four quarters, while inflation in Europe and the US will rise to 1.5%.
Beyond the Middle East conflict, investors are looking forward to a new round of US economic data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed mixed. Fair Isaac ( FICO ) fell more than -9% and was the top percentage loser in the S&P 500 after the company announced plans to sell $1 billion of senior notes due 2034 through a private offering. Also, much of the software stock is down, Atlassian Corp. said. ( TEAM ) and Workday ( WDAY ) fell more than -3%. In addition, The Campbell Company ( CPB ) sank more than -7% after the packaged food company posted weaker-than-expected FQ2 results and cut its full-year guidance. Fast forward, Oracle ( ORCL ) jumped more than +9% after the cloud computing company posted impressive FQ3 results and raised its fiscal 2027 earnings guidance.
A report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose +0.3% m/m in February, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation rose +2.4% in February, the same as last month and in line with expectations. Also, core CPI, which includes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y in February, in line with expectations.
“Given (Wednesday’s) data, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates on hold next week,” said Quilter’s Lindsay James. “Markets are operating on the assumption that there will be no further cuts during Paul’s tenure as chairman, and attention is turning to the arrival of Kevin Warsh in late spring.”
US rate futures are priced at a 99.3% chance of no rate change and a 0.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.
Today, investors will focus on initial US jobless claims data, scheduled to be released in a few hours. Economists expect the number to be 214K, compared to last week’s number of 213K.
US building permits (initial) and housing starts data will also be released today. Economists expect January building permits to be 1.420 million and housing starts to be 1.340 million, compared to December’s figures of 1.455 million and 1.404 million, respectively.
US trade balance data will also be released today. Economists forecast the trade deficit to shrink to $66.6 billion in January from $70.3 billion in December.
In addition, Fed Vice President for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak on “Basel III and Bank Capital Rules” later today in Washington, DC.
On the earnings front, popular companies like Adobe ( ADBE ), Dollar General ( DG ), Ulta Beauty ( ULTA ), and Lennar ( LEN ) are scheduled to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.23%, down -0.05%.
The Euro STOXX 50 Index is down -0.51% this morning as oil prices continue to climb amid escalating Middle East conflicts. Economically sensitive bank stocks fell on Thursday amid concerns about the economic impact of higher oil prices. Travel stocks also fell amid the surge in oil prices. At the same time, defense reserves advanced after the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Gains were also partially driven by a rise of more than +7% in Leonardo Spa ( LDO.M.DX ) after the Italian group announced new targets for 2026 and 2030. Meanwhile, bond yields rose across the region on Thursday as the Middle East conflict fueled inflation concerns and interest rate hikes. KBC Bank said it expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week or in April. In other news, Germany’s IfW institute on Thursday cut its 2026 economic forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8%, citing expectations that commodity prices boosted by the Middle East conflict will remain elevated for only a few more months. In other corporate news, BMW (BMW.DDX) fell about -1% after the automaker forecast a modest decline in group earnings earlier this year and said deliveries would stagnate.
A slate of European economic data is largely blank on Thursday.
Asian stock markets remained in the red today. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) was down -0.10%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) was down -1.04%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today, tracking regional declines as the escalating Middle East conflict dampened risk appetite. Industrial stocks were lower on Thursday. AI-related and non-ferrous metal stocks also retreated. At the same time, energy stocks advanced, following the rise in oil prices. Notably, the benchmark index once again edged lower than its regional peers, continuing its recent pattern of relative resilience despite rising Middle East conflicts. Capital Economics economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said the conflict is unlikely to affect China’s economic growth, as the economy is less dependent on oil and gas than other major economies. Kari Yong of Pact Asset Management echoed that view, pointing out that while oil and natural gas make up only 20% of China’s energy mix, supply risks are mitigated by the country’s ability to diversify sources to Russia and Latin America. In corporate news, Gutai Junan International fell more than -4% in Hong Kong after the brokerage said security authorities raided its offices this week, seized documents and detained a staff member.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index closed lower today, with oil prices falling for two days due to reports of more ship strikes and terminal shutdowns in Gulf waters. Japan imports about 90% of its oil from the Middle East, whose economy has been hit particularly hard by rising prices and supply disruptions. Japan will withdraw 80 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves, equivalent to 45 days’ supply, to help ease global unrest, Prime Minister Sanai Takeichi said on Wednesday. However, this did little to boost market sentiment. Takamasa Ikeda, senior portfolio manager at GCI Asset Management, said, “The market is betting that (the Middle East conflict) will drag on. Oil prices have risen, and that has encouraged investors to sell stocks.” Real estate, financial and industrial stocks led the decline on Thursday. A government survey released on Thursday showed business sentiment among major Japanese companies eased in the first quarter, but remained in positive territory for the third straight quarter. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields rose on Thursday amid inflation concerns fueled by higher oil prices. The Bank of Japan is likely to cite higher energy prices as justification for raising its policy rate in April, Capital Economist Marcel Thillant said. In other news, foreign investors made a net purchase of 385.5 billion yen worth of Japanese equities in the week to March 7, remaining net buyers for the 11th straight week despite selling Japanese stocks, according to Finance Ministry data. In corporate news, Kyoto Financial Group jumped +7% after the lender doubled its full-year net profit guidance, citing gains from the sale of Nintendo shares. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +3.33% to 44.37.
Japan’s BSI manufacturing conditions index stood at 3.8 in the first quarter, weaker than expectations of 5.3.
Pre-market US stock movers
UiPath ( PATH ) forecast a decline in full-year revenue growth for the automation software company after falling -5% in premarket trading.
Airline stocks fell in premarket trading as oil prices rose, with United Airlines ( UAL ) and American Airlines ( AAL ) falling more than -1%.
Bumble ( BMBL ) surged more than +23% in pre-market trading after the dating app operator posted better-than-expected Q4 revenue and issued strong Q1 revenue guidance.
The Mosaic Co. ( MOS ) rose more than +5% and CF Industries ( CF ) gained more than +4% in pre-market trading as fertilizer makers continued to take advantage of higher price potential amid shipping constraints.
Energy stocks advanced in pre-market trading, with WTI crude oil prices up more than +7%. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and APA Corp. (APA) was up more than +1%.
You can see more Pre-market stock movers over here
Today’s US Earnings Spot: Thursday – March 12th
Adobe ( ADBE ), Wheaton Precious Metals ( WPM ), Dollar General ( DG ), Ulta Beauty ( ULTA ), Lennar ( LEN ), DICK’s Sporting Goods ( DKS ), Rubrik ( RBRK ), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings ( OLLI ), GPGI, Inc. (GPGI), Holding (Sentineling), Sentinel Lochnans Natural Resources LP (MNR), EverCommerce (EVCM), Mineralys Therapeutics (MLYS), Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR), TIC Solutions (TIC), IperionX (IPX), Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR), Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), McEwen (MUX), App-IIIGCA (Appel-IIIGCA), Jiveen (MUX) ProFrac Holding (ACDC), Abacus Global Management (ABX), Mission Production (AVO), Hallador Energy Company (HNRG), Ones Upon A Farm, PBC (OFRM), Atlanticus Holdings (ATLC), American Public Education (APEI), Greenfire Resources (GFR), Angel Studios (ANGX), Greenfire (GFR), Angel Studios (ANGX), PagerDuty (Greenfire Resources) (GFR), Angel Studios (ANGX), PagerDuty (Dody Eastman) (GDOT), Allogene Pharmaceuticals (ALLO), VAALCO Energy (EGY), Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW), Upstream Bio (UPB), Legacy Housing (LEGH), Karat Packaging (KRT), Calavo Growers (CVGW), CION Investment (CION), Zumiez (ZUMICUKONEG), Campaigns (Urbankone), Learning Kingsway Financial Services (KFS), BK Technologies (BKTI), BRT Apartments (BRT), Oncology Institute (TOI), Runway Growth Tax (RWAY), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance ( REFI ), Turtle Beach ( TBCH ), Lemonera Inc. ( LMNR ), Funko ( FNKI ), Real England ( FNNKO ), Part England ( FNKO ), KORU Medical Systems ( KRMD ), Vuzix ( VUZI ), Rapid Micro Bio Systems ( RPID ), Vaxart ( VXRT ), America’s Car Mart ( CRMT ), Open Lending ( LPRO ), Comtech Communications ( CMTL ), Beauty Health Inc. ( SKIN ), Gambling.com Group (GAMB), Health Catalyst (JOYNTMACHAT), Aerospace Technologies (JoMNTJ) Mobility (SRFM), Precision Biosciences (DTIL), Sunrise Realty Trust (SUNS), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), American Vanguard (AVD), CareCloud (CCLD), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT).
As of the date of publication, Oleksandr Pilipenko had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
