Early voting has concluded in Texas, where voters are set to decide two hotly contested primaries for Senate that will determine whether the state remains in play in the general election.
With state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt challenging in the GOP primary, Sen. John Cornyn faces strong headwinds in his bid for a fifth term. If no candidate wins a majority of the primary vote, the race will go to a runoff on May 26.
And on the Democratic side, US Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are locked in a tough battle for the party’s Senate nomination. Democrats hope to be competitive this fall in a traditionally Republican state It faces an uphill battle to secure the four seats needed to flip control in the Senate.
Counting votes in Democratic races can take some time. After voter confusion over polling locations, a judge ruled Tuesday night to keep polls in the Texas Democratic primary open two hours ahead of schedule until 9 p.m. local time. Because the parties hold Texas primaries, the order applies only to the Democratic primary.
Cornyn has argued that if Paxton is nominated, he could put his Senate seat in jeopardy, given his personal and professional controversies. Paxton was indicted on bribery and corruption charges in 2023; The state senate acquitted him. And Paxton’s wife announced last year that she was divorcing “on biblical grounds.”
Paxton has argued that he can energize President Donald Trump’s core supporters, who are less likely to defect to the GOP in the midterm elections.
Trump has remained neutral in the primaries, saying he will support all three candidates. But they could take a side in the runoff, according to a person familiar with White House thinking and strategy.
Trump is likely to endorse Cornyn if he keeps the race close because he views Cornyn as a low-risk, low-cost way to ensure the red seat remains in Republican hands, the person said. But if Paxton pulls ahead by a substantial, double-digit margin, that could change Trump’s calculus, as he’s unlikely to endorse someone he doesn’t think can win.
Trump won Texas by 14 points in the 2024 presidential race, doubling his 6-point margin in 2020 as he made gains across the country. But Democrats think the Senate race could be competitive in November of a midterm election year that would keep the party out of power, indicating then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke is GOP Sen. in 2018. Coming within 3 points of beating Ted Cruz.
The prospect of a potentially competitive — and expensive — Senate race in November has caused GOP leaders to rally behind Cornyn. He and his allies spent $78.5 million on ads in the primary, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Paxton and his allied outside groups spent $4.4 million, while Hunt and his allied super PACs spent $12.2 million.
Lopside ad spending has been a feature of the Democratic primary, with Talarico and his allies looking to boost their name recognition in the sprawling state. Talarico described himself as an “underdog” against Crockett, who entered the race in December with a national profile because of his clashes with Trump and Republicans.
Talarico and an allied super PAC spent $25.3 million on ads, while Crockett and an outside group spent $5.3 million.
Largely aligned on policy, Talarico and Crockett differ on style and strategy as Democratic voters look for a fighter who can hand the party its first statewide victory in more than 30 years.
Crockett, whose supporters describe her as a fearless fighter, has said she can build a multiracial and multiracial coalition of new voters to win Texas. Talarico’s supporters say he is likely to win statewide by appealing to voters across the political spectrum with his win for a Republican state House seat, his populist message and his frequent discussion of his Christian faith.
