As it continues its joint attack with the United States against Iran, Israel sees its task as the culmination of a long-standing policy aimed at driving regime change from within.
Following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people directly, calling on them in Farsi to “go out into the streets, go out in their millions, to finish the job, to overthrow the regime of fear that has made their lives bitter.”
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“Their suffering and sacrifices will not be in vain. The help they wanted, that help has already arrived,” he said of the US and Israeli airstrikes, which have already killed more than 555 people in Iran, including 180 at a girls’ school in the south of the country.
“The Israeli authorities don’t explain it in detail, but it’s clear that what they want to see is regime change in Iran,” said Ahron Bregman, a professor in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, who had returned to Israel to research a book before the latest round of attacks took place.
“I am stuck in Tel Aviv and spend many hours with Israelis in a local shelter. I am surprised by the strong support among these Israelis – mainly liberals – for the war,” he said. “They, like their leaders, believe that if the Iranian regime is overthrown, the Middle East will be totally transformed for the better, which is, of course, nonsense.”
But one wonders to what extent Netanyahu and his allies are interested in ensuring that regime change in Iran goes smoothly.
Israeli officials know that Iran, including its opposition, has a wide range of views and backgrounds.
Many Iranians who have taken to the streets, including in the large protests that took place in January, are united only in their hostility toward the government, with various factions calling for everything from the restoration of the monarchy to full democracy. Others, however, are siding with the government after the attacks on their country and the assassination of Khamenei.
Questions remain
“I think there is a public opacity regarding Israel’s war objectives,” former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy told Al Jazeera. “My sense is that Israel has no real interest in smooth regime change. I think most (Israeli leaders) consider it some kind of fairy tale, although that is not something Netanyahu and his allies are willing to admit publicly.”
“Israel is more interested in the collapse of the regime and the state,” Levy noted. “They want Iran to implode, and if the knock-on effect affects Iraq, the Gulf and much of the region, so much the better.”
“They will have removed a major regional obstacle to their freedom to act, leaving Israel and its allies free to remake the regions and, critically, continue killing Palestinians and possibly even act against Turkiye, which is the next logical step,” he said, reflecting a recent rise in anti-Turkiye rhetoric in Israel, with politicians even characterizing the country as the “new Iran.”
However, while the public appetite for war may be high, there is an understanding that the duration of such a war may not be Israel’s choice.
Most of Israel’s military spending is financed by the United States, where the attack on Iran is proving unpopular. Likewise, in a world where many states had belatedly become critical of Israel’s genocidal actions against the Palestinians – particularly in Gaza – the diplomatic weight of the United States has been vital in protecting its ally from criticism and even broader sanctions.
It is far from clear how long America’s allies in the Gulf will be willing to resist Iranian attacks on their territory in response to a war they have repeatedly warned against. Likewise, it is also difficult to predict how long it will be before regional diplomatic pressure on US President Donald Trump begins to have an impact, Levy warned.
“It’s fitting that this is the holiday of Purim, which also marks the survival of the Jewish people over a threat from Persia 2,500 years ago, and we still celebrate it today. People understand that,” Barak said.
“For Israel to go to war alongside our greatest ally and the greatest power in the world is unprecedented,” Barak continued. “It’s hard to make predictions, but Trump has his own priorities and his own ending, which might not be the same as ours. It could be that Trump withdraws and leaves Israel with the responsibility. What will happen then, I don’t know.”
Public support
Iranian missiles may be hitting Israel, but analysts there say general sentiment among the public supports active hostilities against Iran, backed by the United States.
It arises from years – if not decades – of messages that Iran and its allies are the main threats to Israel.
From Netanyahu’s repeated warnings that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, to predictions by politicians of all stripes that Israel’s destruction at the hands of Iran is imminent, the outbreak of a conflict that many Israelis see as the final confrontation with their enemy has almost been welcomed.
Politicians from the right to the center left have backed the US and Israel’s decision to attack Iran.
Yair Golan, leader of the center-left Democrats, who in May last year outraged many Israelis by saying the endless slaughter of Palestinians risked reducing Israel to a “pariah state,” welcomed the war and said the Israeli military had his “full support” to “eliminate the Iranian threat.”
Other opposition politicians, such as centrist Yair Lapid and right-wing Naftali Bennett, have lined up behind Netanyahu in his confrontation with Iran.
“People here know that Iran is a threat. They know it because Iran keeps telling us,” said Mitchell Barak, a political pollster who was an aide to Netanyahu in the early 1990s. “They (Iran) have the weapons, the will and we know they are ready to attack. Everyone is happy that the war is going on and that this time it will end.
“The Israelis are very proud that this is a fully joint operation with the United States,” said Barak, speaking from a shelter in West Jerusalem. “The goal is regime change and protecting the Israelis. They understand that. The Israelis are hunkering down and determined to see this through.”
