Arthur Hayes explains how Bitcoin has outperformed gold, the Nasdaq 100 since the start of the war

According to Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin is up 7%, outperforming gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the start of the US-Iran conflict.

Bitcoin rose 7% after the start of the US-Iran war on February 28, ahead of gold, which fell 2%, and the Nasdaq 100, which fell 0.5%.

This is according to information shared on X on March 12 by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

Bitcoin is holding ground as traditional assets slide

Hayes has released a chart of normalized performance comparing Bitcoin, gold and the Nasdaq 100 from February 28th to today. All three assets started on the same starting date, which allowed for an accurate comparison of relative performance over a period of about two weeks.

On the chart, Bitcoin outperformed traditional safe-haven assets and the broader technology index, gaining 7% as energy prices rose amid concerns about supply cuts.

However, the price action of BTC during that period was not completely calm. When news of the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran first broke, their fortunes dropped from around $66,000 to just over $63,000, before returning to $67,000 after the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Market watchers at the London Crypto Club agreed with Hayes, saying they noted a similar dynamic when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalated, arguing that BTC spans both the far left and far right tails of the risk distribution, meaning it can react to extreme scenarios in either direction and spend most of its time trading somewhere in the middle.

As of today, the number one cryptocurrency is trading at around $70,000, with a 24-hour range of $69,000 to $71,000, a gain of less than 2%, per data from CoinGecko. However, the picture turns red for seven days and BTC is down 3.5%, although its current price is up 2% on the 30-day reading.

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Looking at the broader context, data analysts at Arab Chain wrote that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index, which measures how much Bitcoin is immediately available for sale on the platform, recently reached its highest reading since October 2025 at 5.10.

According to them, the reading shows that supply on the exchange has decreased, and this has historically been the case during bullish phases when owners moved their BTC to cold storage rather than exchanges.

Hayes watches the Fed

Despite the relative advantage, Hayes insisted that he is not buying Bitcoin yet. In a recent interview, the former CEO of BitMEX said that he is not investing in BTC right now and noted the risk that if the US war with Iran drags on too long, it could lead to a massive stock selloff that would push Bitcoin to $60,000.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone offered a different framework, suggesting that oil could reach $120, Bitcoin could reach $90,000, copper could reach $6 per pound, and silver could reach $100 per ounce, indicating an overall peak in risk assets in the first quarter of 2026 with risk spreads in the market.