Arthur Hayes backs Hyperliquid as his biggest liquid shitcoin bet, targeting $150 HYPE as Bitcoin crushes $69K in derivatives and subtle macros.
Conclusion
- Hayes makes Hyperliquid its largest liquid shitcoin position and calls it the highest-rated crypto project by real paid users.
- He plans to hit $150 per HYPE by August 2026, if the annual revenue of $1.4 billion from the low market share gains from the CEX returns.
- ADV/OI metrics and Bybit’s outlook for 2026 both highlight that market structure and derivative flows are now driving Bitcoin more than in the classic four-year period.
Bitcoin steadies near $69k as derivatives-based market structure collides with subtle macro fundamentals, with Arthur Hayes making Hyperliquid (HYPE) his “biggest liquid shitcoin position ever.” His latest essay describes Maelstrom as “warning men who get money’s attention” and explains that in bullish mode “shitcoins are the best exchanges” because they get paid even when the spot markets stop.
Hayes singled out the DEX Hyperliquid perp, calling it the “dominant DEX perp” and “the largest non-stablecoin revenue generating project” with 97% of revenue used to withdraw HYPE from the market. In its base case, it projects a $150 per HYPE by August 2026, roughly 5x the “current price of ~$30 at the time of writing,” assuming a 30-day annualized return of about $1.4 billion, and only a modest 3.97% market swing from CEX shares. This thesis relies on unauthorized listings of HIP-3, which in “just four months” has reached “close to 10% of the total revenue of Hyperliquid” based on perps in silver, gold, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.
Under the hood, Hayes argues, what matters is now structurenot just legends. He refers to the ADV/OI ratio as “an objective measure for exchange ranking” and concludes that “Hyperliquid’s volume is the most realistic of the top 5 DEXs because its ADV/OI ratio is the lowest.” This is in line with broader research such as Crypto Bybit’s Outlook 2026, which says bitcoin’s classic four-year cycle is slowing as “macroeconomic policies, institutional participation and market structure play an increasing role in price formation.”
Not exactly macro friendly, but crypto trades with a stable profile and heavy derivatives. Bitcoin is changing hands around $69,100, up about 2.7% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is trading around $1,993, with a 24-hour range of around $1,922 to $2,016. Solana is sitting near $81.7, down from $83.2 a day ago, while Hyperliquid is changing hands around $34.2, up about 13.2% on the session. For Hayes, the bottom line is this setup: “What can I buy if the macro is frozen for a while? What’s the top project that has real users, pays real money, and gives that money back to token holders?” His answer is blunt: “Hyperliquid is the highest-ranking project in all of crypto in these metrics.”
