Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks: Fleetwood, McIlroy and Lowry Bets

Russell Henley has shot a combined 18 under par in the last two Arnold Palmer Invitationals, tying for fourth in 2024 and winning last year’s event. It’s very clear that Henry is very comfortable on the Bay Hill course, as we expect him to continue his strong play when the tournament begins Thursday in the Orlando area.

Henry delivered a memorable eagle chip from the rough just off the 16th green last season for a one-shot victory over Collin Morikawa. He is now aiming to become the first back-to-back winner since Matt Every in 2014-15, but missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational in Pacific Palisades in his last appearance.

Scottie Scheffler has won twice at Bay Hill and is clearly hungry for another. Tiger Woods (8 titles) is the only player to win the tournament more than twice. Rory McIlroy won the event in 2018 and would also be a major threat.

The Scheffler clock is always on.

Scheffler has three top-five finishes in four starts this season, including a win at the American Express in Southern California in January. He finished outside the top 10 for the first time this season, tying for 12th at Pacific Palisades. The opening round 74 was stung.

Scheffler (+335) is a mixed figure, but perhaps Tommy Fleetwood (+1850) and Morikawa (+2700) are worth looking at longer odds. Fleetwood certainly did well, tying for 4th at Pebble Beach and tying for 7th at Genesis, while Morikawa won at Pebble Beach and tied for 7th at Genesis.

But Morikawa missed the cut in consecutive years before a strong showing at Bay Hill last year. Fleetwood is tied for 11th and is handling the pressure much better these days after winning the Tour Championship last year.

Tommy Fleetwood wins the tournament, +1850 (DraftKings)

Rory won’t make it to the top, but he will go on the hunt.

McIlroy (+980 to win, +194 to top five) is expected to be one of the leaders in the final round, with a win tied for second in 2023. When he tied for 15th last year, he never shot below 70. The year before, McIlroy tied for 21st.

Morikawa (+440) seems like a top-five possibility due to his strong play recently, but his missed cut in 2023-24 remains in the memory bank. Corey Connors (+7800, +1025 top 5) hasn’t had a great run recently, but he’s worth watching as he’s finished 3rd in two of the last five years, including last year.

Sepp Straka (+5800, +820 top five) tied for second at Pebble Beach and tied for fifth at Bay Hill last year. Mitigating that good showing is that he finished tied for 57th in 2024 after missing the cut four times in a row.

Rory McIlroy rounded out the top five. +194(DraftKings)

Lowry hopes the collapse is in the rearview mirror.

Shane Lowry (+4700, +300 top 10) had the misfortune of finishing in a tie for second at the Cognizant Classic last weekend when he made double bogeys on the 16th and 17th holes to give up the lead and watch Nico Echavarria win. We’ll find out on Thursday if there’s a hangover or if the meltdown motivates Lowry.

He clearly showed he likes Bay Hill, finishing third in 2024 and seventh last year. Michael Kim (+2800, +1125 top 10) finished 4th last year, but has struggled this year with two missed cuts and a 72nd place finish at Pebble Beach.

One player to avoid is Justin Rose, despite his recent win at Torrey Pines where he finished at a whopping 23 under par. Rose (+4900, top 10 +320) has failed to make the Bay Hill cut for five straight years and finished tied for eighth last year.

Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10, +300 (DraftKings)