Are investors abandoning BTC?

Key considerations:

• Bitcoin futures demand has hit its lowest level since 2024, indicating that many institutional traders are cautious.

• Despite low bull confidence, high CME interest suggests that major institutions have not abandoned the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices rallied 10% after retesting $63,000 on Saturday, providing a glimmer of hope for bulls as equity markets moved in the opposite direction amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, demand for Bitcoin futures is falling, with open interest reaching its lowest level since 2024. This trend scares traders that institutional investors are leaving the market.

Bitcoin futures fell to $32 billion on Sunday, down 20% from a month ago. Even if measured in Bitcoin terms to adjust for the recent price decline, current demand for BTC futures was at its lowest level since August 2024 at 491,300 BTC. Part of this decline can be explained by the forced culling of bulls that were shocked.

Demand for bullish positions has been largely non-existent since the October 2025 high of $126,200.

The annual premium (base rate) on monthly Bitcoin futures contracts fell to a one-year low of 2%. Under neutral conditions, the index should be between 5% and 10% to compensate for the long settlement period. Even more interestingly, the benchmark has not been able to sustain an uptrend over the past 12 months, a period that includes a 50% rally between April and May 2025.

Bitcoin’s poor performance relative to gold and the stock market has likely taken investors’ attention away from the cryptocurrency market. However, given that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade on average more than $3 billion per day, it can be argued that institutional investors have left the market. ETF holders include some of the world’s largest mutual fund and pension fund managers.

Additionally, there are more than $79 billion in Bitcoin held by publicly traded companies, including Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador and the United Arab Emirates have also added exposure to Bitcoin. It can be argued that institutional adoption still has a long way to go, but the current situation is far from zero.

Bitcoin derivatives show stability as bulls waver

The Bitcoin options market confirms that derivatives are working to recover the $72,000 level despite repeated setbacks.

Bitcoin call options premium remained near 0.7 on Monday. This indicates that there is less demand for put (sell) options than for call (call) options. A short jump in demand for bearish strategies did not last on Friday. As a matter of fact, the options market has not shown any signs of serious problems or persistent stress over the past few months.

related to: Bitcoin Holders Show ‘Zero Panic’ As BTC Hits $70K Amid Middle East Tensions

The derivative data also shows a lack of confidence among the bulls, especially since Bitcoin is 45% below its all-time high. However, there is no evidence that institutional players have left the market. The $7.5 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME is a clear sign of institutional activity. Regardless of selling pressure, each short order (sell) must be matched by a long order (buy), which keeps the market in balance.

Eventually, fear and uncertainty fade as more buyers return to the bottom of the downtrend. While it is not clear that $60,000 was the absolute bottom of this market cycle, Bitcoin once again showed that it is a safe asset with a fixed supply. The $1.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has proven its strength and shows no signs of slowing down.