US President Donald Trump’s second term has been defined by the kidnapping of Venezuela’s leftist President Nicolás Maduro, joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran that killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, among hundreds, and new threats against other leaders in Latin America and even Europe.
This policy is testing alliances, legal norms and the idea that shock measures abroad produce predictable results at home. In essence, there is a message that Trump repeats in different ways: “We can communicate with you, and we may not protect you if you don’t do what we want.”
Recommended stories
list of 4 itemsend of list
Trump speaks directly to foreign leaders, promising them swift punishment or a personal favor, and presenting himself as the only “gloveless” American president.
While his supporters see strength and directness, critics highlight threats and agreements aimed at both domestic politics and foreign capital.
A doctrine built around enemies.
Trump’s decision to attack Iran has been described as the “biggest foreign policy gamble of his presidency,” and analysts say he has moved from “quick, limited operations like last month’s lightning strike in Venezuela” to what could be a longer conflict that is already morphing into a broader regional war.
Its doctrine is based on identifying adversaries – Iran, China, Russia and North Korea – along with a group of actors such as Venezuela, Cuba, certain Latin American leaders, as well as drug cartels, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Analysts at the Atlantic Council say Trump’s National Security Strategy “elevates great power competition with China and Russia, while portraying Iran and North Korea as rogue regimes,” creating an organizing map of enemies that is reflected in their rhetoric and operations.
The Foreign Policy Research Institute describes Trump’s strategy as “a deeply transactional document,” arguing that security guarantees and pressure on adversaries are framed by what others “pay” or concede to the United States.
Iran and the regional extension of the war
The Pentagon has dubbed its campaign against Iran Operation Epic Fury, and Trump insists that the United States “did not start this war” but intends to end it, a claim rejected by Iran’s foreign minister in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Trump said U.S. forces would “destroy” much of Iran’s military, deny Tehran a nuclear weapon and “give the Iranians the opportunity to overthrow their rulers.” Some media reports said he had privately claimed that Iran would “soon have a missile that could hit the United States,” although intelligence assessments do not support that claim.
Analysts say Trump hopes the attacks between the United States and Israel will incite a popular uprising to overthrow Iran’s rulers, even though outside air power has never directly achieved a change of government without ground forces. The Atlantic Council warns that the attack on Iran risks dragging Washington into a broader regional war “with no clear end.”
A report from the Royal United Services Institute says that if Iran’s retaliation causes significant casualties in the United States, Washington will come under intense pressure to expand Operation Epic Fury into a larger military campaign.
Meanwhile, hawks in Washington see an opportunity. A report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies says the attacks on Iran provide “a historic opportunity to help the downfall of the Islamic Republic.”
Trump has told US media that the military operation could last “four weeks or less,” even as his defense secretary acknowledged it could be shorter or longer, depending on how Iran and its allies respond.
Within days of Iran’s attacks on Saturday, the war has spread across the region, and Israel said on Tuesday it had launched ground operations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran’s retaliatory attacks have targeted American assets and even civilian infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and other Gulf nations.
This is exactly the escalation that experts had warned about: attacks framed as targeted beheadings of Iran’s leaders that now draw in a weakened Hezbollah and even Lebanese civilians, reinforcing the perception that the United States is willing to put an entire region at risk to prove it can reach a man or topple a regime.
As he did in Venezuela by capturing Maduro in a raid in and out of Caracas after a tip from the CIA, an episode that analysts say encourages similar thoughts elsewhere.
“Worrying precedent”
The raid in Caracas followed a “maximum pressure” campaign, which included sanctions, criminal cases and asset seizures in a high-visibility operation. Maduro’s kidnapping gave the United States considerable control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies calls Maduro’s operation “a military victory without a viable end,” arguing that while the president’s exfiltration was tactically successful, the structural drivers of Venezuela’s crisis remained in place.
A Brookings analysis warned that the raid “sets a worrying precedent for US-led regime change through special forces,” suggesting that other Latin American leaders may see it as a possible US “template” rather than a one-off.
Like Colombia, whose president Gustavo Petro was described by Trump as “sick,” suggesting an intervention similar to that of Venezuela in that country “sounds good to me” and warning Petro to “be careful.”
Petro said in January that the United States was behaving like an empire that treats Latin American governments as subjects, warning that Washington risks going from “dominating the world” to being “isolated from the world.”
The assassination or kidnapping of leaders or prominent figures of other nations violates international law. Experts say Trump’s growing “targeted assassination” doctrine erodes the taboo on assassinating political leaders, making reciprocity more plausible.
Protection as a transaction
With allies, Trump’s stance is less kinetic but equally forceful.
Trump once boasted that he told a NATO partner: “You didn’t pay? You’re a criminal… No, I wouldn’t protect you. In fact, I would encourage (Russia) to do whatever it wanted.”
The comments sparked alarm in European capitals and prompted what analysts described as efforts to “Trump-proof NATO” by securing higher defense spending and deeper political commitments.
The European Council on Foreign Relations alleges that Trump has “exported MAGA to Europe,” turning NATO into “a protection business in all but name” where security guarantees appear conditional on the political and financial alignment of allies.
A declassified White House memo from 2019 remains the clearest example of how Trump’s transactional logic extends to partners. The memo shows Trump responding to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request for more weapons.
“However, I would like you to do us a favor,” Trump reportedly said before asking Zelenskyy to investigate former US President Joe Biden and his son, a conversation that led to Trump’s first impeachment.
Who could be next?
Taken together, Maduro’s incursion, Iran’s attack, threats to Petro and pressure on NATO suggest who could be next: Latin American leaders labeled as soft on drug cartels; Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon; or smaller European nations branded “criminals” by Trump.
US media reports say Trump’s advisers have urged him to focus on the domestic economy, warning that a prolonged confrontation with Iran could alienate parts of his “America First” base who are skeptical of open-ended wars.
Meanwhile, Trump supporters cite rising NATO disbursements, Maduro’s incursion and Iran’s attacks as proof that Trump “walks his talk.” Some argue that downgrading Iran’s nuclear program, even without regime change, would still count as a victory for Trump.
However, critics are concerned that the campaign against Iran could become the largest US military campaign since the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and that some of Trump’s claims about Iran are not backed by intelligence.
Whether American power produces lasting results without negative consequences – in Iran, Lebanon, Latin America and within the United States – is a key test for Trump in the coming days.
