Bitcoin will rise if artificial intelligence disrupts the labor market or creates instability that prompts central banks to ease their monetary policy, says Greg Cipolaro, head of research at crypto services firm NYDIG.
Cipolaro said in a research note on Friday that AI is likely to be seen as a “general purpose technology” like electricity, and its macroeconomic impact on employment, economic growth and risk appetite will affect Bitcoin (BTC).
“If AI-driven growth occurs alongside liquidity expansion and takes on real-world levels, this could be a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin,” Cipolaro said. “But if stronger growth boosts real yields, tightens policy and reduces the need for monetary accommodation, bitcoin could face headwinds.”
“Conversely, if AI creates labor disruption or volatility that leads to fiscal expansion and easier monetary policy, the resulting liquidity momentum is likely to favor bitcoin,” he said.
The economy is already seeing the impact of the technology as companies experience mass layoffs caused by AI as billions of dollars in investment pour into companies building AI models.
Jack Dorsey said on Friday that his payments company Block is cutting about 40% of its workforce due to AI, and predicted that many other companies will soon follow suit.
AI transitions can be unstable and uneven
The research arm of Goldman Sachs claimed in a report in August that widespread adoption of AI could eliminate up to 7% of the US workforce, but potentially create new job opportunities.
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Cipolaro acknowledged that the transition would bring “challenges” that would require restructuring workflows, new skills and additional investment. However, he predicts that AI will follow the same “historical pattern” of previous technological developments.
“That’s not to say disruption will be painless, but the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence. Society’s response to AI is likely to follow that pattern,” he said.
“Those who integrate effectively will widen margins and productivity gaps. Workers who adapt will increase their relevance. Those who resist may fall behind,” Cipolaro said.
AI adoption is also expanding within crypto. In October, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced a new tool, Payments MCP, that gives AI agents access to the same on-chain financial tools used by humans, and AI and blockchain executives noted that it may be safe, but also introduces new risks.
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