Small and medium-sized businesses are navigating a new wave of uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on tariffs — and in some ways, the ruling has made planning even harder, according to the CEO of supply chain software company Netstock.
While the decision reduced some tariffs, it also opened the door to temporary measures and potentially new products, creating what NetStock co-founder and chief technology officer Barry Kukuk described as a worse environment than before.
“It almost seems like there’s more uncertainty now that this order has come out than there was three days ago,” Kukuk told FreightViews. “A year ago it was a mess. Everything fell into place, and we know where we stand. Now it’s all back in the air.”
For small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which make up 99% of US companies and about 44% of GDP, this uncertainty complicates already critical supply chain decisions. Many are still wondering whether tariffs paid in recent years can eventually be refunded — and if so, how long the process will take.
“Will anyone get a refund, and how does it work?” Kukuk said. “How many years is it going to take to unravel all of this? It’s just a mess.”
Despite the legal and policy changes, NetStock executives say their customers are largely resisting the knee-jerk reaction.
“Our customers are not afraid to shop,” Kukuk said. “They know it can go this way or it can go that way. However, I need to take it a lot at a time.”
This limitation stands in contrast to businesses that still rely heavily on spreadsheets for demand planning. According to Jefferson Barr, Netstock’s senior vice president of global marketing, nearly 8 in 10 SMBs continue to use spreadsheets as a primary planning tool.
“When there’s uncertainty, your spreadsheet struggles to model that uncertainty,” Kukuk said. “You never really know where things are going to go.”
Barr added that instability has become the norm rather than the exception. “One of the terms we use is structural instability,” he said. “It’s just in our larger economy. The sooner they can deal with it — beyond just using a spreadsheet — they’re in a better position.”
Businesses have been conditioned to expect disruption over the past few years, from pandemic shutdowns to the closure of the Suez Canal to geopolitical tensions. Tariffs are simply the latest shock.
“From 2020 onward, it’s just one after the other,” Kukuk said. “Interruptions are here to stay.”
Even if companies eventually recover tariff payments, consumers may not see much relief at checkout.
“A lot of them actually absorbed a lot of tariffs and didn’t pass the tariffs on to their customers,” Kukuk said. “Maybe if they get the money back, it will be a little bit of a relief and they can get their margins back a little bit to stay in business for a long time.”
Barr echoed this sentiment, noting that many companies have cut product lines or absorbed costs to maintain service levels. “They kind of attacked last year on several different fronts to weather the storm and keep customer satisfaction high,” he said.
As a result, refunds—if they materialize—may help repair balance sheets rather than cut rates.
A clear trend emerging from recurring disruptions is supplier diversification. Businesses that once relied heavily on Chinese manufacturing are increasingly seeking alternatives in Vietnam, Singapore and Mexico.
“Diversity has started and I think it will continue forever,” Kukuk said. “That’s something that’s woken up with U.S. importers, and they’re always going to try to have a diverse supply chain so they can stick with the next thing.”
Netstock data shows appetite to move away from centralized sourcing has grown steadily over the past year, Barr said. “We saw the appetite there,” he said. “And I think we’re going to continue that trend.”
However, switching suppliers is easier said than done. In some industries, viable alternatives to China remain limited.
Netstock executives said technology — especially predictive tools enhanced with artificial intelligence — is becoming essential to SMB survival in a volatile business environment.
“If you still think you can get away with a cash register and some Excel, it’s not going to work,” Kukuk said. “You need complexity. That’s how you weather the storm and thrive the next time around.”
Netstock, which provides demand planning and inventory optimization software for SMBs, reported 29% year-over-year growth in 2025 and added 80 net new customers in December alone, a company record.
“When we came in early last year, we were very nervous,” Barr said. “How many of our customers would go out of business? And they did amazingly well. They were really smart.”
As the prospect of new tariffs recedes in the coming months, Netstock’s leadership believes SMBs are better prepared than a year ago — though not necessarily more comfortable.
“It wouldn’t be a surprise,” Cook said. “It will be uncomfortable. But they will say, ‘Well, now we know how to deal with changes in tariffs.’
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