Even after the airstrikes end, Iran’s nuclear threat looms and diplomacy may be too late.
Steve Inskip, Host:
When the United States and Israel stop bombing Iran, they will have to figure out how to deal with the remnants of the country’s nuclear program. NPR’s Michael Kelemen reports that it may be even harder now to talk Iran out of uranium enrichment.
MICHELLE KELEMEN, BYLINE: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is confident about Iran’s ability to deal with the 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium it has.
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PETE HEGSETH: We have a number of options up to and including Iran deciding to give up, which we welcome. He was not ready to negotiate.
KELEMEN: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told “Face the Nation” with Margaret Brennan on CBS that he was talking about this before the US and Israel began bombing his country.
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ABBAS ARAGHI: Actually, I said that we are willing to dilute or as they say under-mix those enriched materials. So you know that’s a big offer, a big discount.
KELEMEN: Trump says Iran wants a deal now, but Araghi denies there are any talks.
Kelsey Davenport: At the end of this conflict, the threat of Iranian proliferation will remain.
KELEMEN: That’s Kelsey Davenport, she’s with the Arms Control Association. He supports nuclear diplomacy with Iran and says the US and Israel cannot bomb Iran knowledge.
DAVENPORT: That’s a recipe for repeated strikes – a grass-cutting strategy where the US has to go in every few years if there’s a danger that, you know, Iran has resumed activities that the US is concerned about.
KELEMEN: There is a way to break this cycle, says David Albright, author of “Iran’s Perilous Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons.”
DAVID ALBRIGHT: Their strategy and stated goal is for Iran to agree to abandon its enrichment program and nuclear weapons program and accept intrusive inspections as part of a ceasefire agreement.
KELEMEN: Albright says he hasn’t heard anything coherent from this administration. The White House told NPR that it would be “foolish” to relay every possible mechanism to the Iranian regime, for now as the US military continues to destroy Iran’s dreams of a nuclear weapon. Still, Albright thinks Trump’s key advisers would benefit from attending one of the nuclear nonproliferation seminars from his think tank, the Institute for Science and International Security.
ALBRIGHT: You know, it would be nice if competent people were negotiating with the Iranians, but I don’t think that’s important.
KELEMEN: Because for years, Iran has insisted on the right to enrichment, and Trump administration officials have called that a redline. Albright agrees with him on that and says a change in administration could be the answer to this problem. But Kelsey Davenport says regime change doesn’t necessarily change proliferation risks.
Davenport: A liberal democracy feels vulnerable post-conflict, a sense of threat from its neighbors may lead to a decision to develop nuclear weapons.
KELEMEN: But Albright sets a precedent. A change of leadership in South Africa a few decades ago led to the dismantling of its nuclear weapons program, and Syria’s new leaders are now opening up to the International Atomic Energy Agency. They fear that if the Islamic Republic survives the war, it may restructure its program.
Albright: I don’t think it can be done quickly. I think it was severely traumatized by the June war and then this war will make it worse.
KELEMEN: Albright says there’s another danger. If the regime collapses into chaos, the US may have to take huge risks to protect nuclear material.
Michelle Kelemen, NPR News, State Department.
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