Countries in Africa, where farmers rely heavily on imported fertilizers and a large proportion of household income goes to food, are particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by war in the Middle East, experts have said.
The conflict has dramatically disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route not only for oil and gas but also for fertilizers, which are produced in large quantities in the Gulf.
African countries are among those most dependent on seaborne fertilizer imports from the Middle East. A new report from the United Nations agency for trade and development (Unctad) states that 54% of Sudan’s fertilizers arrive this way. The figures for Somalia and Kenya are 30% and 26% respectively.
About a third of seaborne trade in fertilizers, an agricultural input vital to improving productivity, is transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
Much of the world’s fertilizer is produced in the Gulf, which has a large amount of cheap fossil gas – critical in the manufacture of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea – and produces large quantities of sulfur, a byproduct used to make phosphate fertilizers.
Fertilizer prices have soared since the war began last month, and Unctad says that can increase food costs and intensify pressures on the cost of living, particularly for the most vulnerable people. Rising oil and gas prices will have the same impact.
According to Unctad, African economies are highly vulnerable and face greater uncertainty during major crises. The reasons include dependence on foreign markets, volatile commodity exports, high debt and weak infrastructure.
Governments across Africa are already struggling with budget pressures and are therefore particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
“Any disruption, any shock really affects us all,” said Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, an advisory firm.
XN Iraki, professor of business and economics at the University of Nairobi, said the impact of rising oil prices would be felt “acutely” in Africa because most people on the continent work in the informal sector, where there is “uncertain income”.
Rama Yade, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, said in X that rising oil prices pose “serious economic challenges” for many governments on the continent. Governments could be forced to increase subsidies or pass the cost on to consumers, “which could generate social and political pressure,” he said.
African countries are preparing for possible shocks. Kenya’s Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi recently said the country had scheduled imports of petroleum products for delivery until the end of April. He added that the ministry “will continue to take necessary measures to ensure uninterrupted supply.”
In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has ordered the country’s Ministry of Energy to strengthen its strategic fuel reserves.
Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy to protect people from the economic impact of rising global oil prices, while Zambia has warned fuel retailers not to hoard the product.
Naidoo, the political analyst, said that while some countries have mechanisms such as subsidies to protect people against high oil prices, they may not be enough to mitigate the effects in the long term.
The continent faced similar shocks in 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains.
At the other end of the supply chain, rising crude oil prices could mean higher revenues for oil exporters such as Nigeria, Algeria and Angola, as other countries turn to them.
On the African supply side, the war is affecting African exports to or through the Middle East by air and sea. Last week, Kenya’s agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, said the conflict has disrupted the export of meat, tea and other food products to the Middle East.
