For Irish leaders, it has long been the highlight of the political calendar: a Washington love fest with hosts wearing shamrocks and toasting St. Patrick.
Irish delegations are traditionally greeted at the Capitol and the White House in a glow of goodwill and backslapping that makes them wish it were March 17 every day.
This time, however, it feels different. When taoiseach Micheál Martin presents Donald Trump with a plate of shamrocks in the Oval Office next week, he will be walking a tightrope.
The mercurial nature of the American president and tensions between Dublin and Washington over foreign policy, corporate taxes and immigration have turned the Irish-American showcase into a potential debacle.
“I’m sure the Taoiseach has a plan, but the best-laid plans can go awry when walking through a minefield,” said Trina Vargo, founder and president of the US-Ireland Alliance, which promotes bilateral ties.
Some Republicans have criticized Ireland for its stances on Palestine and Israel, and for its pocketing of huge tax revenues from American technology and pharmaceutical giants. Some in the Make America Great Again (Maga) movement hope an Irish version of Trump will emerge to topple Dublin’s ruling elites.
“Hate plamas“Vargo said, using an Irish term to ingratiate himself with adulation. “But that’s what the president responds to. I suspect the taoiseach will launch golf in a big way in the hope of keeping it sweet.”
But if Martin only praises and charms Trump, he will anger Irish people who want him to rebuke US actions against Iran, Greenland, undocumented immigrants and other targets.
Earlier this week, Irish President Catherine Connolly called the crisis in the Middle East “deliberate attacks on international law,” a coded way of saying that Trump’s war against Iran was illegal. Opposition parties denounced the conflict and told Martin to confront Trump or boycott the White House. Michelle O’Neill, First Minister of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, will not attend.
The detention of Irish citizens by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents – and warnings of raids on St. Patrick’s Day gatherings – have deepened the sense that Ireland can no longer expect preferential treatment.
Irish voters narrowly favor Martin’s visit to the White House, according to an opinion poll last month, but a clear majority opposes any invitation for Trump to attend the Irish Open, which will be held in September at his Doonbeg golf resort in County Clare.
Leo Varadkar, a former taoiseach and coalition partner, said Martin had a responsibility to avoid saying or doing anything that might provoke Trump and harm Ireland, but he also had an obligation to articulate Irish concerns. “I think the Irish will want me to take the opportunity to say something,” Varadkar told RTÉ.
Dan Mulhall, a former Irish ambassador to Washington, said there was no point in trying to challenge or confront Trump. “You’re not going to convince him that he’s wrong and you’re right. I’m sure Micheál Martin’s speechwriters are working hard to craft a message that reflects our concerns but doesn’t confront the lion in its den.”
It used to be much simpler. A gift of a shamrock to President Harry Truman in 1952 marked the beginning of the era in which Washington went green to celebrate Ireland’s patron saint and the Irish diaspora. It gave Dublin a platform to network and lobby for investments, visas and other favors. Even as Irish emigration to the United States waned, the tradition persisted and gained new momentum under the presidencies of Bill Clinton and Joe Biden.
But sentimentality toward Ireland has waned with demographic realities, leaving it potentially vulnerable, Vargo said. “President Trump’s gaze has not yet turned to Ireland. Ireland has to hope he doesn’t.”
Irish officials hope to please their host by highlighting planned investments by Irish companies. “Ireland’s gift to Trump: shamrocks and a $6.1 billion investment promise,” the Wall Street Journal reported this week.
Martin can buy additional goodwill by citing the Irish ancestry of 23 American presidents, Mulhall said. He is optimistic that the Taoiseach will emerge unscathed. “St. Patrick’s Day is an American institution, it’s a happy occasion. Nobody in Maga country expects Trump to give Micheál Martin a good beating.”
Anxiety about last year’s visit – when tensions were lower – was misplaced, Mulhall said. “The moment I saw the shots of JD Vance showing off his green socks, I knew everything was going to be okay.”
