A long-term Bitcoin bull is asking investors to stay measured and strategic mean short-term hardships are cruel for the market.
In a detailed thread posted on X, market analyst Caleb Franzen made it clear that the long-term upside is not to be ignored. the realities of the current price structure. He described a framework built around bear market behavior, moving average distributions, and pre-defined invalidation levels.
Identifying distributions below major moving averages
Franzen hinted at Bitcoin’s breakout below the 2-day moving average of 200 in November 2025, around $97,000, as an important turning point. According to him, every major Bitcoin bear market has started with a decisive break below this level.
The chart accompanying his post shows multi-year Bitcoin price action alongside long-term moving average clouds. The red and blue bars show how price trades during uptrends above these moving averages and below them during long-term trends. Each previous phase of the bear market began with a loss of the 2-day 200 MA structure, followed by prolonged weakness.
Franzen also noted the cloud of the 200-week moving average, another level that has historically acted as a bear market magnet. At the time of the breakdown, the range was around $55,000 to $65,000. However, he noted that in 2022 Bitcoin is down about 30% below the cloud of the 200-week MA before the bottom.
Given that in There are obvious scenarios where Bitcoin could fall 20% to 33% below the 200-week MA band and place downside targets around $37,000 to $44,000. Interestingly, this range is closely aligned with the long-term holder’s perceived price, which is currently near $41,700, a level that has always attracted price during bearish phases.
Using historical data without getting caught up in it
Bitcoin has experienced pullbacks of 20% to 30% even in strong bull markets. In bear markets, these declines persist not just for weeks or months, but for quarters. However, he stressed that preparing for a prolonged recession does not mean it has to happen.
Despite presenting a low-profile case supported by historical metrics, Franken was careful to note that history does not guarantee repetition. His approach is based on weighing probabilities, not certainty.
It would be better prepared for a multi-three-month recession and be amazed at the resilience rather than expecting a quick recovery and a deeper weakness. This mindset allows investors to avoid making emotional decisions.
There is also a mode of punching yourself into a single result. Just waiting to retest $40,000 can be expensive if Bitcoin is supported earlier and continues to rise. Interestingly, Franzen also made specific stipulations that would change his position.
If the break of the 2-day 200 MA cloud is an official indicator of the November 2025 low, then a break above the same structure will serve as an upside signal. The retracement of the 2-day 200 MA and the 55-week moving average at $99,000 is the line in the sand for a retracement.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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