According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone in a recent interview with Cointelegraph, as the conflict with Iran drags on and global energy supplies are at risk of prolonged disruption, most financial assets are likely to behave like risky assets.
Despite large price swings across commodities, stock market volatility has remained relatively low, a discrepancy McGlone considers volatile. Historically, such imbalances tend to be resolved by increasing stock volatility—often during broader market corrections.
This unusual dynamic of volatility is also reflected in gold, a market that is traditionally viewed as a safe haven.
“Right now gold’s 180-day volatility is about 2.5 times that of the S&P 500,” McGlone said. “So it’s no longer a store of value.”
In the interview, McGlone also discusses why Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market can act as a leading indicator of global risk assets. With the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index already down significantly from its peak, he argues that crypto could signal a potential downturn in traditional markets.
He suggests that the macro backdrop is more akin to past periods of stress, including before the 2008 financial crisis, when electricity prices skyrocketed ahead of the global economic downturn.
McGlone also shares his outlook on oil prices, interest rates and the role of U.S. Treasuries, which he still sees as one of the few assets that could benefit if volatility rises and economic growth slows.
Could the current shock in oil trigger a broader market correction? And what does it mean for Bitcoin, stocks and the global economy?
Watch Mike McGlone’s full interview to hear his full macro outlook and market predictions.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
